Home Inside the Numbers: How did Virginia pull the massive upset at #10 North Carolina?
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Inside the Numbers: How did Virginia pull the massive upset at #10 North Carolina?

Chris Graham
tony muskett uva unc
Photo: UVA Athletics

You’re not supposed to be able to lose the turnover battle, and have your two turnovers take away possible TDs, and still be able to pull the upset on the road over an undefeated Top 10 team.

Outside of the turnovers, Virginia, a 31-27 winner over #10 North Carolina on Saturday night, did everything right.

The Cavaliers, 120th nationally in rushing coming in, rang up 228 yards on the ground, which keyed a huge edge in time of possession – 37:06 to 22:54.

These are your numbers of the game: 228, and 37:06.

If you want to beat a team that averages 500-plus yards a game on offense, you’re going to want to keep the ball away from them as much as possible.

Check.


Chris Graham breaks down UVA’s 31-27 upset of North Carolina


Big plays

You’re also not supposed to win when the other team dominates the big plays – passes of 15+, runs of 10+.

UNC had a 307-163 advantage in big-play yards.

Most of that was through the air: 267 yards on nine Maye completions.

It’s hard to win getting your yards piecemeal.

Virginia won getting its yards piecemeal.

Lack of balance

One thing that stands out: Carolina had 48 passes and 29 runs, even with the ACC’s leading rusher, Omarion Hampton, going for 112 yards on the ground.

Hampton ran for 5.9 yards per attempt, but only got 19 attempts.

Virginia ran the ball 54 times (54!) and passed on 30 plays.

Gotta think that UNC should have run the ball more.

Muskett: A winner

Quarterback Tony Muskett wasn’t perfect – he threw an INT into the end zone in the second quarter – but aside from that, he was a winner.

For the night, the FCS transfer was 20-of-30 passing for 208 yards, two TDs – including the go-ahead 14-yarder to Malik Washington, on a play that Muskett kept alive with his feet, and I don’t know if I was alone in yelling at the TV to tell him to throw that one away, there was nothing there, throw it away, dammit, but he made the play.

Muskett also ran for a sack-adjusted 75 yards, was sacked just twice – credit to the O line, which has been among the worst O lines in FBS all season, for keeping him largely upright against a solid UNC front, and for clearing the way for the 228 yards on the ground.

D: Bend, but don’t break

Credit to the Virginia defense, too. Yes, North Carolina put up 490 yards, and Drake Maye passed for 347 – but he needed 48 pass attempts to get there, and completed only 24.

Maye’s Heisman campaign: over.

Even with Maye and Hampton putting up big numbers yards-wise, the UVA D got the stops when it needed to, including twice in the fourth quarter.

The Virginia front, coming in: five sacks in six games, registered two on Maye, and Maye was hit on his final pass attempt of the game by Paul Akere, forcing a wobbly throw that would be intercepted by James Jackson to seal it.

Big night for Mike Hollins

Mike Hollins suffered life-threatening injuries last Nov. 13 on a night when three of his teammates – Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr. and D’Sean Perry – lost their lives in a mass shooting after a drama-class field trip.

Hollins, who has no reason to be playing football after what he’s had to endure, except that he has resolve that few of us could ever conjure up, had three TDs in the win Saturday night at #10 UNC.

You write a script for a movie trying to tell that kind of story, and, sorry, it’s rejected for being too schmaltzy.

Washington: Another 100-plus night

Malik Washington, the ACC’s leading receiver coming in, had another big night – 12 catches on 16 targets, 115 yards, and the go-ahead TD.

It was the fifth 100-plus-yard game for Washington on the season.

Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham, the king of "fringe media," a zero-time Virginia Sportswriter of the Year, and a member of zero Halls of Fame, is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, or subscribe to his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].

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