Experts: Chaos unlikely at Democratic National Convention due to support for Harris

The chaos surrounding Lyndon Johnson’s decision to drop out of the presidential race in March 1968 turned into chaos at the Democratic National Convention, and the election ultimately did not turn out well for Democrats.

However, Nicholas Goedert, a political scientist at Virginia Tech, said there is a stark contrast between President Joe Biden turning down the nomination and what happened at the 1968 convention.

“It looks like this year, the party has quickly converged on a new candidate,” Goedert said.

Biden’s decision to not seek the nomination for re-election came on Sunday. After the announcement, prominent Democrats quickly announced support for Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

“His (Biden’s) formal withdrawal brought closure to an increasingly public debate among prominent Democrats and others about his viability as a candidate, but also heightens the uncertainty surrounding the November election and the Democratic nomination to replace him with the Aug. 19-21 convention approaching,” said Karen Hult, also a political scientist at Tech.

A candidate needs 1,976 delegates on the first ballot to win the party’s nomination.

“This is an unprecedented situation that is still unfolding,” said Caitlin Jewitt, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Virginia Tech. “At this point, it is the delegates that will decide who becomes the Democratic nominee.”

The decision to drop out before the convention was a necessary decision for the Democratic party to remain competitive in the election in November, said Goedert.

“He (Biden) was only behind by a few points in the polls, so I’m skeptical we’ll see a huge immediate change in those polls substituting Kamala Harris’ name for Biden’s,” Goedert said. “However, the primary concern was with Biden’s ability to make up those few points over the next three months through a vigorous campaign and focused message, and it’s possible a new ticket will help immensely with that going forward.”

It’s unclear how Biden’s decision will impact Senate and Congressional races.

“Over the next few months, it can’t hurt for Democrats to mount a more robust campaign at all levels of the ticket with a more unified and forward-looking message, less tied to Biden’s past accomplishments and failures,” said Goedert.

In the end, Biden’s withdrawal allows him to focus on his remaining days in office. His term expires on Jan. 20, 2025.

“Reflections on his long career and on the Biden-Harris presidency already have begun, with that scrutiny certain to intensify as November draws closer and Vice President Harris becomes the public face of the administration and the primary target of critics,” Hult said.