Virginia farms, including those in the Shenandoah Valley, are making critical decisions about the planting season at a time when tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, are creating a lot of uncertainty regarding the likely demand for products.
More than 90 percent of Virginia farms are classified as small farms, and one industry expert warns many may struggle to “stay afloat” due to rising costs and lackluster demand tied to the tariffs imposed by the president and reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods.
“U.S.-imposed tariffs on key agricultural imports, such as potash from Canada, increase costs and disrupt deliveries for agribusiness firms,” said Xi He, a Virginia Tech agricultural trade policy analyst. “These firms, especially those relying on just-in-time logistics for fertilizer, will face higher expenses and operational delays, straining the broader supply chain.
“These disruptions can then ripple through rural economies, in regions like the Shenandoah Valley,” she said.
Potash is a vital fertilizer for farms sourced largely from Canada, which supplies more than 85 percent of U.S. needs.
The strain on the Virginia farming industry will likely impact production costs associated with tobacco, corn, soybeans, wheat and barley.
“At the same time, retaliatory tariffs from Mexico, Canada and China in response to U.S. tariffs would particularly affect Virginia soybeans, poultry, pork and tobacco, as these face significant economic threats tied to disrupted trade with key partners,” He said. “Retaliatory tariffs make it more costly for foreign countries to purchase U.S. agricultural products compared to products from other origins which could reduce demand for U.S. products and depress prices.
The tariffs and related uncertainty regarding demand come at a time that farmers are making critical planting decisions.
“Farmers will confront a high-stakes dilemma, deciding now — amid trade uncertainty — whether to plant soybeans, expand poultry, or adjust rotations, with markets like China and Canada in flux,” He said.
Before the U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, Virginia’s agricultural industry stood as a robust economic force, contributing $3 billion in agricultural exports in 2024 and $3.2 billion in 2023.
“Higher costs for American goods in these markets reduce demand, cutting into farm revenues and increasing uncertainty for producers,” He said. “Small farms — over 90 percent of Virginia’s around 40,000 operations — will be especially vulnerable, as they often lack the financial cushion to absorb these shocks.
“Faced with rising input costs and declining export opportunities, many could struggle to stay afloat.”
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Crystal Graham
