The numbers are starting to trickle in from the Nov. 4 general elections in Virginia, which is electing a new governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and House of Delegates.
We’ll be updating the numbers and providing analysis as the night rolls on.
Update: 7:54 p.m. MSNBC is already projecting Abigail Spanberger the winner in the governor’s race. We’re at roughly 900,000 votes counted, per the Virginia Department of Elections; I’d expect about 3.0 to 3.2 million votes total at the end of the night.
Update: 8:05 p.m. Numbers are in from my home locality, Waynesboro, which is the rare city in Virginia that is reliably Republican. Winsome Earle-Sears is trailing here by 400 votes, with 8,400 votes counted, which is 600 more than were cast in 2021.
The percentage split: Spanberger 52.3%, Earle-Sears 47.6%.
In 2021 in Waynesboro, Glenn Youngkin got 56.9%.
Update: 8:16 p.m. Augusta County continues to be irredeemable. With 15,000 votes counted, which is a little less than half the total that voted here in 2021, Earle-Sears is at 77.3%.
Youngkin in Augusta County in 2021: 77.9 percent.
Update: 8:19 p.m. We’re about halfway through the total vote count – roughly 1.5 million votes counted at this writing, per the Virginia Public Access Project.
- Abigail Spanberger is at 55.2%.
- Ghazala Hashmi: 53.3%.
- Jay Jones: 50.8%.
Jay Jones vs. Jason Miyares will be close.
Update: 8:23 p.m. One early possible flip from R to D in House of Delegates races. Elizabeth Guzman leads Ian Lovejoy in HD 22 by more than 3,000 votes (and 9.2 points) with, it appears, all votes counted.
Update 8:34 p.m. We’re over 2 million votes counted now, per VPAP. Jones leads Miyares by 41,000 votes, or 2%.
Update: 8:37 p.m. Update from my home House of Delegates district, HD 36.
VPAP has all the precincts in the district reporting, and the Republican, Ellen Campbell, with a 5,800-vote lead. VPAP says there are still 11,000 early votes left to be counted.
Makayla Venable, the Democrat, would have to win roughly 75& of the early vote to pull the upset.
Early votes do tend to trend D, so.
Update: 8:42 p.m. If I’m John McAuliff in HD 30, I’m feeling decent right now.
All the precincts are in, with 2,400 early votes to still be counted, and McAuliff leads Republican incumbent Geary Higgins by 640 votes.
Higgins would have to get 62% of the early vote to retain the seat.
Update: 8:52 p.m. Other races where D challengers could feel good.
- HD 49: Gary Miller leads Madison Whittle by 700 votes with 10,000 early votes to be counted.
- HD 64: Stacey Annie Carroll trails Paul Milde by 13 votes (!) with 14,000 early votes to be counted.
- HD 69: Mark Downey leads Chad Green by 417 votes, with 13,000 early votes left.
Update: 8:57 p.m. Flip in HD 73. Democrat Leslie Mehta unseats Republican Mark Earley Jr. Mehta won by 1,600 votes (3.2 points).
Update: 8:59 p.m. Three more flips in HD 21, HD 30 and HD 82.
- HD 22: Democrat Elizabeth Guzman unseats Republican Ian Lovejoy by 3,341 votes (9.2 points).
- HD 30: Democrat John McAuliff unseats Republican Geary Higgins by 636 votes (1.5 points).
- HD 82: Democrat Kimberly Adams unseats Republican Kim Taylor by 2,530 votes (7.4 points).
Update: 9:04 p.m. Surprise continues in AG race. With 2.35 million votes counted, Jay Jones leads Jason Miyares by 89,000 votes, 3.7 points.
Update: 9:08 p.m. Update in HD 36. All of the precincts are in, we still have the 11,000 early votes out, and the Democrat, Makayla Venable, was able to narrow the margin to 4,300 votes.
The math changes: from needing 75 percent of the early votes, she now needs about 70 percent.
That’s a stretch, but doable.
Update: 9:11 p.m. Feel good alert. Lily Franklin (D) trails Chris Obenshain (R) in HD 41 by 1,800 votes with 26 of 27 precincts reporting, and 9,750 early votes to be counted.
Update: 9:16 p.m. The longest of our D longshots on our list of 20 challenging Rs is off the board. Mike Cherry (R) holds his HD 74 seat with a 6.5-point win over Jonas James Eppert. Cherry didn’t even have a challenger in the 2023 cycle, and Donald Trump won the 74th in 2024 by 8.7 percent.
Update: 9:19 p.m. Another of our longshots on the 20 is off the board. Joe McNamara (R) holds his HD 40 seat with a 6.4-point win over Donna Littlepage. McNamara had won in the 40th in 2023 by 19.6 points.
Update: 9:22 p.m. Upset alert in HD41. Democrat Lily Franklin now trails Republican incumbent Chris Obenshain by 395 votes with all precincts reporting, and 7,916 early votes to be counted.
Update: 9:29 p.m. AG race update, and it’s still looking good for Jay Jones. With 2.6 million votes counted, Jones leads by 117,000 votes (3.4 points). We’re getting close to the end there.
Update: 9:37 p.m. Flip in HD 41. Lily Franklin (D) defeated Chris Obenshain (R) by 766 votes (2.4 points).
The fifth Democratic pickup of the night.
Update: 9:46 p.m. Two more D flips in the House of Delegates.
- HD 57: May Nivar (D) defeats David Owen (R) by 4,557 votes (10.6 points).
- HD 66: Nicole Cole (D) defeats Bobby Orrock (R) by 1,564 votes (10.7 points).
Democrats have now gained seven seats. This would give Ds a 58-42 advantage in the House.
Update: 9:53 p.m. Good news and bad news in HD 34 for Democrat Andrew Payton.
Payton, at this writing, leads Republican incumbent Tony Wilt by 900 votes with all the early votes in, and four precincts still outstanding.
That’s the good news.
The bad news: Wilt won those four precincts in the 2023 cycle by about 2,000 votes.
Update: 9:54 p.m. NBC News is projecting Democrat Jay Jones the winner in the AG race.
With 2.9 million votes counted, Jones leads Jason Miyares by 136,000 votes (4.6 percent).
Update: 10:23 p.m. New flip, in HD 64. Stacey Annie Carroll (D) defeats Paul Milde (R) by 2,027 votes (5.7 points).
In HD 34, Tony Wilt (R) holds his seat, defeating Andrew Payton (D) by 1,308 votes (4.8 points).
Foiled, again, we are, here in the Valley.
Net gain overall for Virginia Ds of +8. House is 59-41 D at the moment. Looking to be between 62 and 64 when the night is done.
Update: 10:27 p.m. Another flip, in HD 69. Mark Downey (D) defeated Chad Green (R) by 1,102 votes (2.9 points.)
Now Ds are +9.
Update: 10:29 p.m. Another flip, this one in HD 71. Jessica Anderson (D) defeats Amanda Batten (R) by 2,414 votes (5.5 points).
Now Ds are +10.
Update: 10:36 p.m. Still watching.
Possible/likely flips
- HD 75: Democrat Lindsey Dougherty leads Republican Carrie Coyner (Jay Jones‘ text friend).
- HD 86: Democrat Virgil Thornton is poised to get the win over Republican AC Cordoza.
- HD 89: Democrat Karen Carnegie has all but wrapped up a win over Republican Mike Lamonea.
- HD 99: Democrat Cat Portfield trails Republican Anne Farrell Tata by 1,800 votes with 10,000 early votes to be counted.
Maybe, maybe not
- HD 49: Republican Madison Whittle appears headed to a narrow win over Democrat Gary Miller.
- HD 100: Democrat Liz Richardson trails Republican Rob Bloxom Jr. by 2,000 votes with 5,000 early votes to be counted.
I see four more D pickups here, which would get us to +14.
Update: 10:46 p.m. Flip in HD 75. Lindsey Dougherty (D) beats Carrie Coyner (R) by 1,6044 votes (5.6 points).
Ds now at +11.
Update: 10:51 p.m. Another flip, in HD 89. Democrat Karen Carnegie defeats Republican Mike Lamonea by 3,210 votes (8.7 points).
Republicans hold their seats in HD 99 and HD 100.
Ds now at +12.
Update: 10:57 p.m. Another flip, in HD 86. Democrat Virgil Thornton defeats Republican AC Cordoza by 2,202 votes (7.0 points).
Ds now at +13.
Looks like it will end there. The race in HD 49 is still outstanding, but the math doesn’t work for the Democratic challenger, Gary Miller.
Update: 11:03 p.m. So, as we start to wrap the live coverage, Ds go from a 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates to a 64-36 majority.
In the statewide races, with all but 14 voting precincts reporting, and 65,000 early votes to still be counted:
- Governor: Abigail Spanberger leads 57.2% to 42.8% for Winsome Earle-Sears (14.4 points).
- LG: Ghazala Hashmi leads 55.2% to 44.6% for John Reid (10.6 points).
- AG: Jay Jones leads 52.7% to 46.9% for Jason Miyares (4.8 points).
I’m shocked by the margin for Jones. The polling averages had Spanberger winning by 9-10 points, with the Hashmi race in the 5-6 point range, and the Jones-Miyares race was a dead heat leaning toward Miyares.
Maybe the polling average people need to better weed out the trash R polls going forward.
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Chris Graham
