The track of Tropical Storm Debby beyond Monday is a little bit of a question mark, but forecasters do predict it will reach hurricane strength before landfall. Unless the storm makes a slight westward shift mid-week, the Shenandoah Valley will not see significant rain from the storm.
Fifteen localities in Virginia have been declared disaster areas by the U.S. Department of Agriculture due to severe drought conditions.
“Right now, we feel Debby will make landfall as a hurricane in the Big Bend area of Florida on Monday and then slow to a crawl while moving northeast across northern Florida,” said Thomas Kines, AccuWeather senior meteorologist. “Debby will continue to track northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, very slowly, along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina.”
Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical storm after landfall, but it is possible that it could strengthen again Tuesday and Wednesday when it reaches the Atlantic coastline.
“Rainfall from Debby will be excessive in many areas of the southeast, and for some, this will be a once-in-a-lifetime event,” Kines said. “Rainfall through Friday can exceed 2 feet in some areas of the southeast, causing historical flooding.”
If Debby continues its track northeast along the coast before moving out the sea, the heaviest rain in Virginia will be near and east of the I-95 corridor.
“Several inches of rain can fall there during the Wednesday through Friday time period resulting in the risk of flooding,” Kines said.
Along the coast of Virginia, there could also be rough surf and beach erosion as well as damaging wind gusts.
Unfortunately, rain amounts will be significantly less in the Shenandoah Valley and in the western mountains.
“Rain amounts are expected to decrease quickly west of the I-95 corridor but a slight westward shift in the track of Debby at mid-week can bring heavier rain into the Shenandoah Valley,” Kines said. “This obviously would be welcome considering the current dryness. Those who would welcome an inch of rain shouldn’t give up hope yet!”
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Crystal Graham
