The Washington Nationals played into October, but only because the final Sunday of the 2015 regular season fell on Oct. 3.
A preseason favorite to be a World Series participant, the Nats led the National League East at the All-Star break, went 5-5 in a brutal 10-game stretch against the Dodgers, Mets and Pirates (all eventual NL participants), and then … poof.
An 8-17 stretch put Washington under .500 on Aug. 21, and though the Nationals would put together a couple of hot streaks to get within hailing distance of the Mets in the East, it was not meant to be.
Bryce Harper led the NL in homers in a year that saw him put in one of the better offensive season in MLB history (leading the Majors in on-base and slugging, second in the NL in batting, all at the ripe old age of 22). Max Scherzer became one of six pitchers in Major League history to throw two no-hitters in a season.
Stephen Strasburg went 8-2 with a 1.76 ERA in his last 13 starts after going on the disabled list three times in 2015.
And it was all for naught, as the Nats finished 83-79, seven games behind New York in the East, playing out the string with more than a week to go in the season.
Manager Matt Williams, a year removed from being named NL Manager of the Year, is almost certainly going to be fired on Monday.
What else does the offseason have in store in Washington?
Personnel
Matt Williams: Done.
Bryce Harper: Harper has one year left on his last below-market deal (he is set to make $5 million in ’16). Having put in the best offensive season for a 22-year-old since Ted Williams hit .406 as a 22-year-old in 1941, Harper is eligible for arbitration in 2017. The sooner the Nats open talks toward a long-term deal, the better.
Stephen Strasburg: Strasburg, 27, signed a one-year, $7.4 million deal in January. The Nats control his rights through 2016, but Strasburg is due a big raise through arbitration. Is there incentive on both ends to give a little for a long-term deal?
Jordan Zimmerman: Zimmerman, 29, had another solid year in 2015 (13-10, 3.66 ERA, 201.2 IP) as he is now eligible to test the free-agent waters. Made $16.5 million in 2015, and this next contract is his last. Probably moving on.
Ian Desmond: A free agent, Desmond, 30, picked the worst possible year to put up career-worst numbers (.234/.290./386 slash, 19 homers, 62 RBI, 2.0 WAR). A popular guy in the clubhouse, the talk has nonetheless been that Desmond won’t be around in 2016.
Doug Fister: A free agent after a so-so year (5-7, 4.19 ERA in 25 appearances/15 starts), Fister, 31, made $11.4 million in 2015. Probably gone.
Denard Span: Paid $9 million in the last year of his deal in 2015. Span, 31, put up good numbers when he was available (.301/.365/.431 slash line), but he wasn’t all that much available (he missed 101 games). Gone.
Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez, 30, had an OK 2015 (11-8, 3.79 ERA). Gonzalez is signed through 2016, with team and vesting options for 2017 and 2018. Solid #3 starter.
Ryan Zimmerman: Signed through 2019, Zimmerman, 31, has missed a combined 170 games the past two seasons, and was moved from third to first in 2015 to accommodate his declining skills in the infield. When healthy, he was productive in 2015 (16 HR, 73 RBIs in 95 games). On the books for $14 million a year the next three seasons, and $18 million in 2019, it will be hard to move him and get much in return, but he seems to be a better fit in the American League at this stage in his career.
Jayson Werth: Signed through 2017, and set to make $21 million each of the next two years, Werth, 36, seems headed toward decline. He played in just 87 games in 2015, with a .223/.305/.388 slash line, 12 homers, 42 RBI, and a negative WAR (-1.4). If you can find somebody stupid enough to take his superstar salary on, well, you’re not going to.
Overview
Everyday lineup: Unless you can move Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth, pencil them in (lightly) at first and in left, respectively, with Anthony Rendon at second, Trea Turner at short, Yunel Escobar at third, Michael A. Taylor in center, Bryce Harper in right, and Wilson Ramos behind the plate, with some at bats for Danny Espinosa, Clint Robinson, Matt den Dekker and Tyler Moore.
Starting rotation: Max Scherzer (14-12, 2.79 ERA, two no-nos), Strasburg and Gonzalez at the top. The mix at four and five includes Joe Ross (5-5, 3.64 ERA in 16 appearances, including 13 starts) and Tanner Roark (4-7, 4.38 ERA in 40 appearances/12 starts). Both good arms, no need to mortgage the farm to find a #4, at least, especially with the Scherzer/Strasburg/Gonzalez troika at 1-2-3.
Bullpen: Blow it up, start over. Jonathan Papelbon put up good numbers in 2015 (4-3, 2.15 ERA, 24 saves, 1.03 WHIP), but his clubhouse presence is a negative, and as important, his stuff is in long-term decline (according to FanGraphs, his fastball was at 91.4 mph in 2015, down from the 94-plus that he averaged in his first big-league seasons, from 2007-2011). Papelbon is under contract through 2016, but if you can’t move him, pay him to watch, and you’re better off. Seriously. Drew Storen had 29 saves, but didn’t handle his demotion from closer with the trade for Papelbon. The Nats own his rights, but a change in scenery might be good for both sides, and Storen has good enough stuff to give you something good back in return. There are good arms out there to build around: like lefties Matt Thornton (2-1, 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 60 appearances) and Felipe Rivero (2-1, 2.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 49 appearances) and … actually, that’s it. To repeat, blow it up, and start over.
Early, early, early 2016 forecast
Assuming a decent level of health, and that’s assuming a lot on a team that sent out its projected 2015 starting lineup for exactly two games due to injuries, this is still a solid team. You lose Desmond at short, but his value was more as a bat than in the field, and his bat was in decline in 2015, so Trea Turner doesn’t have to be an All-Star to be a value in 2016.
You have to assume that you get more out of Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth in 2016. Taylor flourished in center in Span’s absence, and if Escobar can repeat his 2015 (.314/.375/.415, 9 homers, 56 RBIs) or even come close, you put that quintet around Harper, and this offense will score some runs.
The starting rotation will take a hit losing Jordan Zimmerman, but the Scherzer-Strasburg-Gonzalez trio is still as good as what anybody else can throw out there.
The bullpen will have to be rebuilt from the foundation, and whoever replaces Williams in the manager’s office will have to know how to manage the staff, but then, whoever gets the job will have to be better at managing a staff than Matt Williams.
Bottom line: It’s an even-numbered year, so the 2016 Nats will contend.
– Column by Chris Graham
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