This might be a stretch, but not a big stretch. The ACC, which has been kicked to the curb by the national media in an attempt to promote the SEC and Big Ten, might be getting the last laugh after all.
At the expense of the SEC and to a lesser extent, by the Big Ten.
Heading into the final week of regular season play, the ACC can earn as many as three playoff bids in the initial College Football Playoff 12-team field.
On Tuesday evening, the playoff committee ranked Miami as the No. 6 team, SMU as the No. 9 team, and Clemson as the No.12 team.
SMU locked up a spot in the ACC Championship Game Saturday in a 33-7 cakewalk over Virginia; the Mustangs finish the season at home against Cal. Win or lose against the Golden Bears, SMU will be in Charlotte on Dec. 7.
Miami can punch a ticket to Charlotte with a win up north against a good Syracuse team.
Clemson, which has completed league play, faces in-state rival South Carolina in Death Valley Saturday at noon. The Tigers need Miami to stumble against Syracuse to earn the opportunity to play SMU in the ACC title game.
It’s still a massive game for the Tigers; they need a win to cling to any hopes of making the CFP.
How big a weekend is for those three teams?
A loss on Saturday ends any hopes of an at-large bid, with only the championship game winner moving on.
But what if they all win?
Looking at the individual games, that could easily happen.
SMU is a two-touchdown favorite at home against Cal. While the Bears (6-5) have had a decent season, their most impressive win was in early September against Auburn. On the downside, the Bears lost to Florida State.
Somehow, Miami is a 10-point favorite in the dome at Syracuse. This is my likely loss that will screw things up for the ACC.
Clemson entertains South Carolina and is a slight 2.5-point favorite. The spread is that close, possibly because of the noon kickoff, which surely will take the edge off the Tiger faithful.
So, the odds of all three winning are pretty good if you’re considering a betting parlay.
What about the SEC?
Well, the media spin (from ESPN) is already hard at work.
Late last night’s talk was about a three-loss Georgia team that deserves a bid if the Bulldogs’ third loss should come in the SEC Championship Game.
Georgia is a lock to play this weekend’s winner of the Texas vs. Texas A&M contest in the SEC Championship in Atlanta.
The thought process was, why punish the Dawgs for an extra game?
The answer is that they lost two regular-season games.
Applying that same logic, I thought the same should apply to Miami or SMU. Both are ranked and will likely face each other in the ACC Championship Game.
A loss shouldn’t bounce either team out, but it probably will, as more SEC and Big 10 teams in the playoffs further advance the two Super Conference ideas of the national media.
Bigger Big Ten is paying off, or is it?
The expanded Big Ten is poised to be the biggest benefactor of the expanded College Football Playoff.
The 18-team conference had three top-four teams in Tuesday’s CFP poll: No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State, and No. 10 Indiana.
The Hoosiers are still in the field despite getting swallowed by Ohio State on Saturday.
Oregon beat Ohio State earlier this season, and if the Buckeyes beat Michigan this week, which they should, they will face the Ducks in a rematch for the Big Ten title.
What’s hard to imagine is the possibility that Oregon and Ohio State could square off for a third time this season in the CFP.
On the flip side of the Super Conference concept, if Ohio State gets tripped up by Michigan, a two-loss Buckeye team could find itself on the outside looking in.
Indiana ripped off 10 straight wins under former JMU coach Curt Cignetti before running into a brick wall in the Horseshoe against Ohio State.
Cignetti needed a statement game in Columbus, and it didn’t get it. The Hoosiers managed just 151 yards of total offense, many in garbage time.
Indiana closes with 1-10 Purdue on Saturday, which is not good.
Even an 11-1 Indiana team could slip enough to fall out of CFP contention.
For the Big Ten, maybe bigger isn’t better?
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