I hate to be a “Gloomy Gus,” but to say I am disappointed in the ‘Hoos losing two out of three to bottom-feeder Cal over the weekend is an understatement. I am starting to think UVA’s chances of making to the NCAA Tournament are slim and none and slim is headed out the door.
Steve
I was a “Gloomy Gus” – a “Debbie Downer” – myself over the weekend, letting emotion get the best of the analytics in one of my baseball columns.
The analytics suggest that, despite the eye test, Virginia is an NCAA Tournament lock.
You’d look at the current 33-18 regular-season record, point to how last year’s 32-18 team got left out of the field, and say, how?
Here’s how:
- 2025: Virginia was 32-18 overall, 16-11 in the ACC – but was just 66th in the RPI, 87th in strength of schedule, and 246th in nonconference strength of schedule. Note: we had a three-game series at Florida State in April canceled because of a mass shooting on the FSU campus.
- 2026: Virginia is 33-18 overall, 13-14 in the ACC – but is 23rd in the RPI, because the schedule is better – 16th overall, and the NC SOS is 114th.
I wouldn’t go out and lose to Richmond (30-21, RPI: 134) on Tuesday and then get swept at Louisville (27-25, RPI: 94) over the weekend, but.
***
Gotta say, little worried about the baseball staff. The hitting has dried up the last month, very inconsistent. Pitching is the same. Some good outings and a bunch of average to below average. Fielding is atrocious.
Not sure why Chris Pollard has to pitch Lucas Hartman every game. He blew the two games this weekend. You pointed out, where is Noah Yoder? No way he is tired, he has thrown 22 innings. Where is Jayden Stroman? If we cannot pitch those guys an inning a series in ACC ball, then what are we doing coaching-wise? One guy hits 100, and the other 97. A good coaching staff should have them able to pitch and inning or two.
All the talking heads said UVA would be good, except D1Baseball (I guess they know better than the rest), but this team is very average.
Not really confident in the coaches at this point. Yes, I know they did well at Duke. Hopefully, it is a blip, but not great.
Russell
The pitching staff is subpar, definitely. As I wrote up last night, there’s basically nobody for Pollard to use in leverage situations other than Kevin Jaxel, Lucas Hartman or Tyler Kapa. He’s having to use the heck out of his starters to try to get the ball to the setup guys, which would be fine, except that he’s only got one decent starter, Henry Zatkowski.
The approach of the hitters is vexing. Too many one-pitch outs.
That’s coaching, or lack thereof.
No excuse for hitters to be going to the plate in May without a game plan.
I don’t see much more than a win in a losers’ bracket game against a four seed in the NCAA Tournament out of this group.
Which, yes, is disappointing.
This is two straight years of disappointment. Spent the bulk of this season in the Top 10 nationally; started last season in the Top 5.
No tournament last year, almost certainly a quick exit this year.
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Chris Graham
