We have the one version of the UVA Baseball team that was pretty good – through March 24, Virginia was 21-5, 6-3 in the ACC, with series wins over North Carolina, Wake Forest, VCU and Virginia Tech, all teams that would go on to get NCAA Tournament invites.
And then there was the post-March 24 version: 15-16, swept at Pitt, lost two of three at home to Cal, lost two of three at Louisville.
Lost at home to a JMU team ranked 181 (!) in the RPI.
I’m tending to think that the real UVA team is the 15-16 version; there’s still no reliable starting pitcher behind ace Henry Zatkowski, no bullpen beyond the dramatically overused Lucas Hartman, and the lineup is just too inconsistent, despite having two first-round talents at the top of the order.
But here’s the thing about the postseason: everybody is 0-0 again.
“If it’s going to be somebody, it might as well be us,” first-year UVA head coach Chris Pollard told his team on Monday, after Virginia was slotted as the two seed in the stacked Hattiesburg, Miss., Regional.
I’m seeing the top seed in the regional, the host, Southern Miss, and the three seed, Jacksonville State, which is one spot ahead of Virginia in the RPI, bandied about as trendy sleeper picks for Omaha.
ICYMI
“It’s a tough regional,” said Pollard, who took three of his teams at Duke to the Super Regionals – in 2018, 2019 and 2025.
He said the field this weekend reminds him of the 2021 Knoxville Regional, when Duke was the two seed in a bracket that included Tennessee and Liberty, who beat his Blue Devils team twice before falling to UT in the final.
“This time of year, when you get to this point, everybody’s good, and so, we’re thrilled to still be playing,” Pollard said.
That part was never in doubt, due to the prolonged hot start, which earned the ‘Hoos lasting love from the computers – Virginia finished 26th in the RPI despite the late-season swoon.
But starting over at 0-0 can probably feel like a new lease on life for this group, which spent a good part of the season ranked in the Top 10 nationally – so, I mean, they know what it feels like to have success.
Virginia finished up last week on something of a decent note – beating Duke, 6-4, in the second round of the ACC Tournament on Wednesday, before falling to top seed Georgia Tech, 16-10, on Thursday, in a game in which UVA had a 9-5 lead into the seventh, and just couldn’t get things closed out.
ICYMI
- UVA Baseball: ‘Hoos get past Duke, 6-4, to advance in ACC tourney
- UVA Baseball: Issues with pitching, defense doom ‘Hoos in 16-10 loss to Georgia Tech
Pollard, who won two ACC Tournament titles at Duke, sees a blessing in disguise that the team didn’t play deeper into the tournament last week.
“I can tell you in ‘21 and ’24., when we won the ACC Tournament, we felt like we were really depleted when we started that regional. Guys were gassed. We’re now at a point, ending our ACC Tournament run on Thursday, where we can kind of set everybody up to be available on Friday, and guys will be fresh and feel good,” Pollard said.
The key this weekend:
“You look at the weekends where we’ve played well, we’ve gotten really good length out of our starting pitching, and I think that’ll be a key again,” Pollard said.
It all starts with Zatkowski (8-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP). You can bank on him getting into the seventh inning in Friday’s opener with Jacksonville State.
After that?
The options have been Kyle Johnson (1-3, 5.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) and John Paone (1-4, 5.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) – who will either get you into the second inning (Johnson on April 25 in the 11-0 loss at Pitt, Paone on May 15 in the 12-2 loss at Louisville) or into the eighth inning (Paone, in the 2-1 win over Cal on May 9).
The blueprint for a regional championship is, seven innings from each.
I think you can put Z Man down for his seven innings; anything less than a solid two times through the order for Johnson and Paone is playing with fire.
My forecast for the weekend is one win – either Zatkowski on Friday night, or a staff-day win over the four seed, Little Rock, in an elimination game on Saturday.
I just don’t see there being enough pitching to get Virginia through a four-team regional.
But I do like Pollard’s optimism.
He’s said several times that he has more talent on this team than he had on any of the three Duke teams that he took to the Supers.
And indeed, if it’s gotta be somebody, might as well be our guys, right?
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Chris Graham
