I spoke on Monday with Bob Nightengale, an MLB insider for USA Today, and chairman of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
Nightengale has broken some of the most significant stories regarding Major League Baseball over the years, and he may have given me an early tipoff on what may be looming for MLB in the next couple of years.
Baseball fans hope there won’t be another work stoppage, but they certainly won’t like what Nightengale feels will be certain after the 2026 season.
The collective bargaining agreement between MLB team owners and the players’ union expires after the 2026 season. Nightengale feels confident the owners are ready to fight to implement a salary cap.
“I’m pretty confident there’s going to be a lockout, there’s too much at stake, and most of the owners are prepared to face it,” said Nightengale.
MLB last had a lockout before the 2022 season, which, despite delaying Opening Day, still ended up playing to a 162-game schedule.
The issues then were compensation for younger players, teams tanking to get better, and higher draft picks.
The salary-cap issue was discussed, but ended up not being part of the CBA negotiations.
After the 2026 season, the salary cap will move to the top of the order, according to Nightengale, and it’s going to get messy.
Real messy.
Nightengale: “This, more than likely, will be protracted, there’s too much at stake for both sides, and there’s no easy answer”.
Here’s a glance at the current state of affairs in Major League Baseball.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have built an estimated $379 million payroll, with the New York Mets close behind at about $350 million.
The opposite end?
The Miami Marlins are $31.5 million, and the Oakland Athletics are $55 million.
Sustainable?
“Not in the long term, certainly for most teams,” said Nightengale.
There is a luxury tax threshold at which teams are taxed at 20 percent to 50 percent for exceeding the payroll threshold, which is currently set at $241 million.
Nightengale says that’s not a deterrent for the wealthiest of clubs.
“The Mets and Dodgers blew past that threshold, and didn’t blink, they don’t care,” he said.
How are the Dodgers and Mets payrolls affecting other clubs?
Maybe leaving them in despair.
For example, I gave Nightengale some attendance numbers at Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates games, which have been below 5,000 on specific games, and he didn’t argue.
“Quite possibly, and also the argument that those two teams’ owners are doing enough,” said Nightengale.
On the surface, a non-salary cap MLB would be the most significant benefit for the players.
Maybe not.
At least not according to some recent free agents.
Nightengale, in an interview with former Baltimore Orioles pitcher, now Arizona Diamondback ace, Corbin Burnes, who signed a six-year, $210 million contract, said, “You get about three, four teams calling, and they take time calling you.”
“Sometimes teams say they want to re-sign you, and they’re showing you the door,” added Burnes.
The biggest obstacle to a salary cap in MLB is the massive disparity in revenue between teams.
This is mainly because, unlike the NFL, the league does not have a national television contract for every game.
Currently, local TV revenues in MLB range from a high of about $200 million for the Dodgers to $31 million for Milwaukee.
I don’t believe the Dodgers’ owners want to share that local TV revenue with any other team.
This led me to inquire about the health of our local teams, the O’s and the Washington Nationals.
“Both are valuable franchises,” said Nightengale.
“Washington and Baltimore are poised to see some major development around their stadiums, which creates non-sharing revenue, which is the end-goal for all franchises.”
Nightengale said the new Baltimore owner, David Rubenstein, acquired about $600 million from the Maryland Stadium Authority shortly after acquiring the team and signing a long-term lease for Oriole Park.
“The development around Camden Yards will be an excellent opportunity to create additional revenue that he (Rubenstein) shares with no other club; the Orioles, already a historic franchise, just got much more valuable,” said Nightengale.
I received insight from one of MLB’s top insiders: enjoy the game for the next two years, and then prepare to dig in for a fight that may very well go the distance.
Share
