The Baseball Prospectus PECOTA isn’t giving much weight to the modestly decent 21-27 start to the Washington Nationals season.
PECOTA is still projecting a 69-93 finish for the Nats in 2025.
FanGraphs is forecasting a 73-89 finish, so, a little better.
You can forgive Nats fans who are getting impatient, here in Year 5 of the rebuild from the teardown of the roster that, in the 2010s decade, went to the playoffs five times and won the 2019 World Series.
The 2010s were so much fun.
The 2020s have been a lengthy course correction.
Seriously, it’s hard to fathom that this is Year 5 of the rebuild.
Where we are now: I like a lot of what the GM, Mike Rizzo, has been able to get in place.
Leftfielder James Wood, 22, and shortstop CJ Abrams, 24, the centerpieces of the Juan Soto trade from back in 2022, are poised to have breakout seasons – Wood (1.8 WAR through 48 games) is slashing .279/.373/.536, with 12 HRs and a .909 OPS; Abrams (1.5 WAR through 35 games) is slashing .312/.368/.574 with eight homers and a .942 OPS).
Second baseman Luis Garcia Jr., 25, (2.2 WAR, .282 BA, .762 OPS in 2024) is off to a slow start this season, but he’s been hitting of late, and I love him at the other middle-infield spot.
The other corner outfielder, 2023 #2 overall pick Dylan Crews, 23, is hitting in spurts (.191 BA, .589 OPS, six homers, 11 stolen bases), but he’s going to be a plus bat, plus baserunner and plus fielder at the big-league level.
Catcher Keibert Ruiz, 26, who came over in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade in 2021, is coming off back-to-back double-digit homer seasons, and he’s hitting, right now, a career-high .280, and the Nats have him locked up through 2030.
There’s still work to do around that everyday-lineup foundation, with help on the way at one of the corner infield positions, in the form of 2021 first-round draft pick Brady House, who had 19 homers in Double-A and Triple-A in 2024, and has taken a big step forward in 2025, slashing .282/.344/.497 with eight homers and an .841 OPS in 42 games with Triple-A Rochester.
The pitching staff has a couple of guys – MacKenzie Gore, 26, another piece from the Soto trade, is the current NL strikeouts leader (84) with good numbers all around, aside from his 2-4 win-loss record (1.5 WAR, 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13.4Ks/9); and Jake Irvin, 28, who has a staff-best 1.6 WAR and 3-1 win-loss record (3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
Lefty Mitchell Parker, 25, meanwhile, has been a pleasant surprise as a middle-of-the-rotation guy (0.7 WAR, 3-3, 4.32 ERA, 1.30 WHIP).
Gore can be a frontline starter, and if the Nats can get 2023 All-Star Josiah Gray, who is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024, back to his previous form, there’s two guys there that can win you some money games.
Those two, plus Irvin and Parker as the three and four starters, are the makings of a nice starting rotation.
Another Soto trade pickup – damn, that was a good trade – is big (6’6”, 235-pound) righthander Jarlin Susana, who is just 21, and currently at Double-A Harrisburg.
I’m projecting Susana as a back-of-the-bullpen guy when he gets to the bigs (his ETA, per MLB.com, is the 2026 season).
There’s still work to do – I’m not sold on Jacob Young (.227 BA, .591 OPS) being the everyday centerfielder going forward, for example; I can see Crews moving to center, opening things up for Rizzo to find another bat for the lineup in right; and you could add another bat at first base as well.
There’s a lot to work with here, is what I’m getting at, with the advantage of having the #1 overall pick in this summer’s draft, to be able to use to add to the foundation.
This is the reason I say, I like what I’m seeing.
The qualifier that I’ll add here at the end – it’s time to start winning.
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Chris Graham
