Waynesboro emergency personnel will be watching rainfall levels in the city associated with Tropical Storm Debby over the next 24 to 36 hours, but just as important, the city has an eye to the south, where heavy precipitation in higher elevations can lead to catastrophic conditions in the River City.
Heavy rain forecast over the Blue Ridge has the potential to create flooding of the South River in Waynesboro. Residents and businesses seem to be taking necessary precautions in advance of the storm’s arrival – filling up sand bags provided by the city to prepare for whatever Debby brings to the area.
While it’s not currently predicted, there is potential for severe flooding.
Additional coverage
Follow our coverage of “Tropical Storm Debby” on Augusta Free Press.
- Augusta County residents urged to be weather aware as Tropical Storm Debby nears
- City of Staunton preparing for deluge likely from Tropical Storm Debby
- Subject to change: Waynesboro prepares for Tropical Storm Debby and its unpredictability
- Virginia: Meteorologist gives final predictions for Tropical Storm Debby impact
- Four to eight inches of rain possible for Shenandoah Valley as Debby’s track shifts west
- Flood watch issued as Tropical Storm Debby brings heavy rain to Virginia
- VDOT reports that it’s ready for Tropical Storm Debby, offers safety tips
- Dominion Energy urges residents to prepare in advance of the storm
- Heavy, soaking rain could create hazardous road conditions throughout Virginia
- State of emergency declared for Virginia due to potential impact from Debby
The southern part of the ridge of the Blue Ridge, in one small area, is looking at 10 inches or more of rain associated with the storm, according to Gary Critzer, the director of the Department of Emergency Management and EMS for the City of Waynesboro.
The heaviest of rain expected to start this evening, he said.
“A big contributing factor is the geography for us [Waynesboro] in that we are close to Sherando and where Mount Torrey Road meets the Parkway, back in the area where the mountain kinds of turns a little bit. That’s where we typically see some really heavy rains at that higher elevation.
“Any heavy runoff from that gets into the headwaters of the South River, that can’t be managed by the flood control dams, can certainly push our river,” Critzer told AFP. “It’s not always rain that falls right here that causes problems with storm sewers and that kind of thing being overcharged and backing up.
“The rain that falls south of us really negatively impacts the South River,” he said. “We’ve seen times in previous events where we had four or five inches of rain locally, and they ended up with eight or 10 or 12 inches of rain south of us, and that’s what really caused us problems with the South River.
“We’ve got to watch both factors, not only what’s falling here but what’s falling to the south of us.”
Currently, the river is expected to crest at 9.1 feet as of 2 p.m. Friday. Yesterday, it was forecast to only reach 7.9 feet. Significant flooding usually occurs when the river crests at 11 or 12 feet.
“That’s still very minor flooding at that level [9.1 feet],” Critzer said. “That’s not in homes and businesses, but it is getting up there. Any change in the negative, meaning if it [Tropical Storm Debby] pulled up and parked and just kept dumping rain, especially south of us, that could certainly cause a bigger problem.
“The numbers do keep changing,” he said, “and they do keep going up.”
Waynesboro received nearly one inch of rain overnight ahead of whatever the storm brings.
Critzer said the city will be watching things very closely starting this evening and overnight. He expects the city will deal with flash flooding and warns residents to be “very cautious.”
Police and Public Works are on call and will be ready to close streets if necessary. The city is also prepared to open emergency shelters, if needed.
“We’ll be watching it really closely throughout the night and into the early morning, but then even when the rain stops, all of that runoff is still coming, so the river will continue to rise until it crests, which can take several hours.”
It’s been more than two decades, in 2003, since Waynesboro had a significant flooding event when Hurricane Isabel’s remnants caused the downtown to flood and low-lying areas received damage due to increased water levels.
“We haven’t seen a significant weather event like this since Isabel in 2003,” Critzer said. “I don’t think this is going to be as bad as Isabel unless, the big factor is that it would stall. If it would stall, it’s got a lot of tropical moisture in it that it’s picked up when it went back out to sea. If it were to slow and stall, it could end up being a storm of equivalent to something like that.
“As I said yesterday, it’s weather, so it is a little bit unpredictable. If everything stays as its forecast today, I think we’re going to be close, but we should be OK.
“I don’t think it’s going to reach that magnitude [of a 100-year storm], but I’m not writing a check on that, because there’s just too many variables.”
Another concern for city residents is the potential for downed trees and power outages.
“The big thing is tomorrow, it’s going to get breezy, and the ground is going to be saturated by then,” Critzer said. “So that causes concerns when you get winds and saturated ground with trees and tree limbs and power lines.”
Tornado watches have already been issued in parts of southeastern Virginia, as the storm has some areas of rotation associated with it.
“It would not surprise me to see the Weather Service put up a tornado watch in our area later this afternoon,” Critzer said. “Certainly when you see winds and circulation like that, that is a possibility.”
Critzer had a call with the Virginia Department of Emergency Management at noon today. He said that the state is not expecting a tornado outbreak, but conditions would be favorable for isolated tornados throughout the duration of the event.
As with any severe weather, Critzer said, “if you don’t have to be out, it’s better that you’re not.”
Share
Crystal Graham
