The path to the ACC Championship Game on Dec. 7 will weave its way through Charlottesville on Saturday.
How?
Follow me here.
By my calculations, three teams still have a mathematical chance of finishing in either first or second place in the regular season standings, earning a spot at Bank of America Stadium in the conference title game.
Virginia hosts one of those three, SMU, on Saturday in Scott Stadium.
While Virginia (5-5) is deciding on a starting quarterback and looking for one more win to go cold-weather bowling, the stakes for the Mustangs are significantly higher.
SMU, which joined the ACC this year, is in control of its own destiny, so a win Saturday is the Mustangs’ only objective.
At this point in the season, style points are irrelevant. Getting to the championship game first, and winning second, puts SMU into the 12-team CFP field.
The Mustangs are 6-0 in ACC play, 9-1 overall, with the game Saturday with UVA and at home to end the year with Cal.
Clemson is 7-1 and finished with ACC play. Miami has just one conference loss and stands 5-1. The Hurricanes have two ACC games remaining, home with Wake Forest and at Syracuse.
While a win Saturday doesn’t automatically put the Ponies in Charlotte, it does clinch at least a tie, forcing the ACC to turn to its tiebreaker rules.
The Mustangs’ 38-28 lackluster win over Boston College last Saturday eliminated eight teams with three or more conference losses from championship game contention.
Clemson loss to Louisville may prove fatal
If, for example, the Tigers finished in a tie with either SMU or Miami, then the common opponent tiebreaker comes into play.
The three common opponents would be FSU and Louisville. SMU and Miami went 2-0 against those teams, while Clemson was beaten in Death Valley by Louisville.
Clemson needs SMU to lose both of its remaining conference games or Miami to lose one to have a chance.
Miami controls its destiny
Unlike Clemson’s loss to Louisville, the Hurricanes head-scratching loss to Georgia Tech might not be as costly.
Miami has a head-to-head victory against Louisville and dodged playing both Clemson and SMU this season.
If Miami and Clemson end up tied, the dreaded common opponent’s tiebreaker is in play.
Common opponents for Clemson and Miami are Virginia Tech, Louisville, FSU and Wake Forest.
Clemson is 3-1 against those teams. Miami is currently 3-0 and faces Wake Saturday.
Again, for Miami it’s a win and you’re in.
What the crystal ball says
SMU should have no problem winning at least one of its remaining two games, either against Virginia or in Dallas against Cal to end the regular season.
Hard to see Miami not picking up at least one win in the next two weeks, but it is Miami.
My guess is that Miami wins out and passes Clemson for the final spot in the ACC title game against SMU.
So, back to Charlottesville
While there may be a clean look to the ACC title game today, a win by Virginia on Saturday would create chaos for the conference, possibly leaving three teams with one league loss.
There’s a lot on the line for SMU.
Only the ACC champion has an automatic bid into the playoffs.
Right now, I doubt the conference gets a second team invite. Currently the Mustangs are just outside the 12-team field at No. 13 in the latest CFP rankings.
Unless there is a shakeup above them, and that’s a possibility, the only guarantee SMU has is to win the ACC championship.
That road begins in Charlottesville on Saturday.
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