A few states surging: But Virginia COVID-19 numbers continue to look good

Three states are accounting for nearly half of the new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Virginia, meanwhile, continues on its recent positive trend.

The three-day average of new Virginia COVID-19 cases is 494, according to the Virginia Department of Health, and the seven-day average – 530 – is 55.6 percent off the May 31 peak of 1,195.

The situation in three states – California, Florida and Texas – is trending in a different direction, case-wise, anyway.

The three states reported a combined 18,211 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, accounting for 47.1 percent of the 38,672 new cases reported nationwide yesterday.

At least for now, the case counts aren’t resulting in the fatality rates seen in March and April.

The seven-day average of reported COVID-19 deaths is at 566.4, according to an analysis of data from the COVID Tracking Project.

The recent peak was a seven-day average of 2,067 COVID-19 deaths per day for the April 15-21 period.

Virginia has reported 1,675 COVID-19 deaths. The 80+ population has accounted for 51.0 percent – 854 – of the deaths, and there have been 1,023 deaths among residents of long-term care facility residents – 61.1 percent.

Those numbers underscore the lethality among the older and more vulnerable.

The infection fatality rate for those under 60, from an analysis of the VDH numbers, is 0.48 percent, for a survival rate of 99.952 percent.

Also noteworthy here is that those under 60 account for 78.9 percent of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in Virginia.

Virginia hospitals continue to operate well within capacity numbers. Hospital census today is 78.0 percent of capacity, according to an analysis of VDH numbers, and 5.2 percent of those patients – 854 – are being treated for COVID-19.

Today’s COVID-19 hospitalization number is down 44.0 percent from the recent high of 1,524 back on May 29, and 47.4 percent from the pandemic high of 1,625 back on May 8.

The number of COVID-19 patients in ICU in Virginia hospitals – 237 – is down 43.0 percent from the recent high of 416 back on May 28, and down 49.5 percent from the pandemic high of 469 back on April 9.

Story by Chris Graham