Notre Dame is 8-1, ranked seventh, on the cusp of the College Football Playoff conversation, with one roadblock in its way: Virginia.
The last two games for the Irish are Georgia Tech and Stanford.
It’s not simply, get past Virginia, and you’re in, because there’s a lot that would have to happen with other teams, like Alabama, Ohio State, Cincinnati, which beat Notre Dame earlier in the year, probably Oklahoma as well.
But the stakes are set: win this one, and it’s like the Irish finish 11-1, and hard to leave out.
Offense
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said this week he will continue to go with Jack Coan as his QB1, but also that the playbook will continue to expand for freshman QB Tyler Buchner, who has seen action in seven games, though most of his work came in the Virginia Tech game, a 32-29 Irish win back in Week 6.
Buchner has only had 27 dropbacks at QB, completing 14 of his 25 pass attempts for 243 yards and three TDs, with three INTs. As a runner, he’s had 31 designed runs for 186 yards, six yards a pop, with two TDs.
His ability to pass makes Buchner different from other young QBs who come in primarily to be wildcats.
Coan is your typical experienced dropback guy – 159-of-242 passing, 65.7 percent completion rate, 1,879 yards, 13 TDs, four INTs.
He’s not going to run much – 10 of his 15 rushing attempts were scrambles, for 67 of his 71 yards gained on the ground.
A lot of what Coan does is screens (18.2 percent of his attempts) and short (0-9 yards, 39.3 percent) and medium (10-19 yards, 19.4 percent), and he’s very effective at each level – his NFL passer ratings are 102.8 on screens, 102.0 on short throws, and 108.7 on medium throws.
His favorite targets:
- tight end Michael Mayer: 63 targets, 45 receptions, 493 yards, 11.0 yards/catch, three TDs
- wideout Kevin Austin Jr.: 56 targets, 31 receptions, 531 yards, 17.1 yards/catch, five TDs
- wideout Avery Davis: 42 targets, 27 receptions, 386 yards, 14.3 yards/catch, four TDs
- tailback Kyren Williams: 36 targets, 34 receptions, 293 yards, 8.6 yards/catch, three TDs
Williams is the featured back, and a good one, averaging 17.9 carries and 87.8 yards per game, 4.9 yards a carry, and 3.8 yards per carry after contact.
You’ll want to watch for Williams running wide – 327 of his 790 yards this season have come around the end, with 219 yards on 32 carries, and 204 yards after contact, around right end.
This will require discipline from the defensive ends and edge linebackers to stay in their lanes.
The O line does a decent job, allowing pressures on 30.4 percent of dropbacks. Coan struggles under pressure – on his 85 dropbacks with pressure, his completion rate is 44.4 percent, and his NFL passer rating is just 65.6.
Defense
The offense is high-percentage throws and tough runs. The defense is hard-nosed, allowing 371.1 yards per game, though it can get taken to the woodshed – for instance, giving up 554 yards to North Carolina in the 44-34 win over the Tar Heels back in Week 9.
The Irish D averages 18.8 QB pressures per game, led by edge rusher Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa (31 pressures, four sacks), tackle Jayson Ademilola (30 pressures, sacks) and edge rusher Jacob Lacey (22 pressures, nine sacks).
Linebacker J.D. Bertrand will both make (78) and miss (12) a lot of tackles. Bertrand has also allowed 31 receptions on 35 targets in pass coverage with a 126.0 NFL passer rating against.
Safety Kyle Hamilton is pretty good in pass coverage – 14 completions in 28 targets, 42.3 NFL passer rating against.
Corners Cam Hart (22 completions on 46 targets, 61.7 NFL passer rating against) and TaRiq Bracy (20 completions on 30 targets, 82.5 NFL passer rating against) are also solid.
Special Teams
Kickoff specialist Jonathan Doerer has just 22 touchbacks on 57 kickoffs. Notre Dame prefers to try to allow returns and pin opponents a little inside the 25, if possible, allowing 20.3 yards per return, so, maybe it works.
Doerer is 13-of-17 on field-goal tries, 4-of-5 from 40-49 and 1-of-2 from 50+, so he’s got the leg.
Punter Jay Bramblett averages 46.0 yards per punt with a 41.6-yard net.
Tailback Chris Tyree has a 96-yard kickoff return for a TD, so you’re not going to see any funny business on kickoffs from Virginia.
Story by Chris Graham