Notre Dame comes into this weekend’s game with #18 UVA with its back against the wall in terms of its desire to return to the College Football Playoff.
The 10th-ranked Irish are coming off a 23-17 loss at #3 Georgia last weekend, and though you can’t say anything bad about a team that had the ball in the final minutes with a chance to win on the road at #3, this one this weekend has a bit of a do-or-die feel to it.
“I mean, clearly they know what’s at stake for them this weekend. They’re playing a really good football team that’s nationally ranked. I think it is the first time they have been ranked for three weeks in a long time. They feel really good about themselves. They’ll come in expecting to win. They’re going to be challenged and they’re going to have to respond. Yeah. You want to find those things out,” Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said.
The Irish (2-1) are a 12-point favorite going in. Their wins: 35-17 at Louisville on Labor Day Night, in a game that was tied until an Ian Book 11-yard run with 17 seconds to go in the first half, and 66-14 over New Mexico.
Book had five touchdown passes in the win over New Mexico, and threw for 360 yards on 15-of-24 passing in the easy win.
For the season, Book has eight TD passes, with two INTs – both coming in the loss at Georgia, in which the senior completed 29 of his 47 pass attempts for 275 yards and two touchdowns.
Notre Dame was never able to get its running game going against the ‘Dawgs, getting just 46 yards on the ground on 14 attempts.
Senior Tony Jones leads the Irish with 148 yards on 30 carries through three games, and Book is also a key contributor on the ground, with 145 yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Virginia, on defense, is among the more stout units up front in the nation, limiting opponents to 75.0 yards per game and 2.2 yards per attempt through four games.
UVA also leads the nation in sacks, with 20, and is fifth nationally in tackles for loss, averaging 9.8 per game.
‘Hoos linebacker Charles Snowden is the reigning, defending, undisputed national linebacker of the week, after recording a career-best 15 tackles, including 3.5 for losses and two sacks, in Virginia’s 28-17 win over ODU.
“Snowden is long and athletic. Just, you know, a really good defense,” Kelly said. “The best comparison I can give you is 3-4 with really good players similar to Georgia. Another challenge for us.”
The Notre Dame offensive line, on paper, seems up for the challenge. The Irish line has been pretty solid itself, allowing just four sacks in its three games.
More time for Book in the pocket means more targets to senior Chase Claypool, a big (6’4”), physical (229 pounds) wideout who has 15 catches and two touchdown receptions in 2019, and is averaging 17.1 yards per catch this season.
Expect to see a lot of Bryce Hall on Claypool, though Hall – 6’1”, 200 pounds – does give up some size in that matchup.
The return of junior tight end Cole Kmet, a 6’5”, 250-pound monster, bolstered the passing game at Georgia last week. Kmet, in his first game in 2019 after breaking his collarbone in practice on Aug. 8, had nine catches for 108 yards and a touchdown.
How important is Kmet to the Notre Dame passing attack?
“When you have a tight end that can push the middle of the field, it creates some problems,” Kelly said. “If you want to play two-deep zone, whose got that guy? Does the safety have him? Does the linebacker have him? So, he creates a matchup problem that can spread the field, if you will, for other receivers to get some favorable matchups. Yeah, he’s a big piece to what we’re doing.”
On the other side of the ball, the Notre Dame defense has been getting gashed a bit on the ground.
Louisville, in the season opener, was able to generate 258 yards and two touchdowns from its run game, and QB Jawon Pass had 67 yards on 16 attempts.
UVA has maybe the nation’s top dual-threat quarterback in Bryce Perkins, who is running for 48.3 yards per game, after averaging 71.0 yards per game a year ago, with 11 rushing TDs in 17 games as the Cavaliers’ signal-caller.
Perkins is putting up better numbers in the passing game than he did a year ago, and his numbers weren’t bad a year ago, when he threw for 2,680 yards (206.2 yards per game) and 25 TDs, with nine INTs and a 64.5 percent completion rate.
Through four games in 2019, Perkins is completing 65.3 percent of his pass attempts, throwing for 210.8 yards per game, and he has six TD passes, though he has had four passes intercepted.
“It all runs through Perkins. You know, it goes through him in terms of his ability to make plays,” Kelly said. “He’s explosive. He’s extremely dangerous with the ball in his hands. He can throw the football at a pretty high percentage. Gets the ball out quickly, he’s not going to sit back there and wait on things.”
For all its troubles in the ground game defensively, Notre Dame has been solid in its pass defense, ranking 10th nationally in opponent passer rating (94.1), though some of that could have been feasting on the two weak opening opponents.
Georgia QB Jake Fromm had a strong statistical game last week, completing 20 of his 26 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown.
One issue, which you could see as related to the troubles in run defense, is lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Notre Dame has registered just four sacks through four games.
The guys to watch up front are a pair of junior linebackers: Drew White, a 6’1”, 225-pounder, who has five tackles for loss and one sack, and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, a 6’2”, 215-pounder, who has 4.5 tackles for loss.
The secondary is led by senior safety Jalen Elliott (14 tackles, two passes defensed, one INT), sophomore defensive back TaRiq Bracy (three passes defensed), and 6’4” freshman Kyle Hamilton (two passes defensed, one INT).
Looking at special teams, Notre Dame placekicker Jonathan Doerer, a junior, is untested in big situations, with only three career field-goal tries, including two this year, though he has not missed a kick (including going 14-for-14 on extra-points).
Virginia kicker Brian Delaney is 5-of-8 on field-goal tries and 16-of-17 on extra points. Delaney had a kick blocked in last week’s win over ODU, and the field-goal unit has had issues with snaps and holds this year.
Notre Dame freshman punter Jay Bramblett is averaging 42.1 yards per punt, with seven of his 14 punts downed inside the 20.
Virginia punter Nash Griffin is averaging 40.7 yards per punt, and has also seen seven of his 14 punts downed inside the 20.
The ‘Hoos appear to have the edge in the kick-return game. Two words: Joe Reed. The senior is averaging 37.8 yards per kickoff return, and has a kick-return TD this season.
So, there you go.
One last bit on the intangibles in this one: the pressure is clearly on the Notre Dame team that entered the season thinking, CFP or Bust.
Last word to Brian Kelly:
“I think our team will define who they are, you know, this week because they’re coming off of a game where they were disappointed in their performance. They have a chance to do something about it. This is an opportunity to kind of define, you know, who you are,” Kelly said.
Story by Chris Graham
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