Duke (22-3, 14-1 ACC), ranked third, you might have heard, they’re pretty good this year – not Zion Williamson and Co. good, but this year’s group has another projected #1 overall one-and-done guy, Cooper Flagg, and maybe more depth than you’re used to seeing from a Duke team.
If there’s a vulnerability, it’s when they play away from Durham – a pair of early-season neutral-site losses to Kentucky and Kansas, two name-brand programs in the midst of mid seasons (both are 17-8), for them, and the 1 in the 14-1 mark in the ACC to this point, a 77-71 loss at Clemson, came last weekend.
Which gets us to Monday night, Big Monday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, Dave O’Brien/Cory Alexander) in JPJ.
Can the ‘Hoos (13-12, 6-8 ACC) make it a game – maybe even pull the upset?
Forecast
- KenPom: Duke 73-58
- BartTorvik: Duke 71-58
- EvanMiya: Duke 76-58
- Haslametrics: Duke 72-58
- ESPN BPI: Duke +16.3
Getting to know: Duke
Flagg, a 6’9”, 205-pound freshman, is, as mentioned already, good (19.8 ppg, 7.5 rebounds/g, 4.0 assists/g, 48.5% FG, 37.8% 3FG).
He’s also familiar as a Duke stretch-four archetype – think: Kyle Filipowski, Paolo Banchero, Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, Jabari Parker, Kyle Singler, all the way back to the original model, Christian Laettner.
The Robin in Duke’s dynamic duo, 6’7” freshman Kon Knueppel (13.0 ppg, 44.6% FG, 37.7% 3FG), was a top recruiting target for Tony Bennett, who was a teammate of Knueppel’s uncle, Jeff Nordgaard, at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Who knows – if Knueppel chooses UVA over Duke, maybe Bennett doesn’t step down on the eve of the season.
Tyrese Proctor, a 6’6” junior off-guard, is old for a Duke top contributor (12.2 ppg, 43.8% FG, 41.2% 3FG).
Coach Jon Scheyer is going even older at point guard – a fifth-year senior, Sion James, a 6’6” grad transfer from Tulane, where he averaged 9.5 points and 3.0 assists per game over his four years there.
James (8.2 ppg, 3.3 assists/g, 47.9% FG, 35.2% 3FG) is getting 24.6 minutes per game at the point, splitting time there with Knueppel and 6’5” sophomore Caleb Foster (5.2 ppg, 1.4 assists/g, 15.2 minutes/g).
Khaman Maluach, a big (7’2”, 250 pound) freshman from South Africa, is getting 20.4 minutes a game at center (8.3 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 72.2% FG).
You might remember the name Maliq Brown (2.5 ppg, 4.3 rebounds/g, 17.9 minutes/g). Brown, a 6’9” junior, chose Duke over Virginia after deciding to transfer out of Syracuse last offseason.
Two other guys we’re likely to see:
- 6’6” senior Mason Gillis (4.6 ppg, 2.4 rebounds/g, 14.4 minutes/g), a grad transfer from Purdue.
- 6’6” freshman Isaiah Evans (6.1 ppg, 42.6% FG, 42.4% 3FG, 12.7 minutes/g), a five-star recruit.
How Virginia matches up
It starts and ends with, who guards Cooper Flagg?
The coaching staff has experience trying to figure out how to defend other Duke stretch-fours, which helps, a little.
It would also help to have a guy like a Ryan Dunn or De’Andre Hunter to be able to chase him around.
Interim coach Ron Sanchez has been starting 6’9” freshman Jacob Cofie (7.4 ppg, 5.0 rebounds/g, 48.7% FG) at the four spot of late.
This might be where you go back to 6’8” junior Elijah Saunders (11.1 ppg, 5.4 rebounds/g, 43.8% FG, 37.9% 3FG), who has been coming off the bench since returning from a lower-leg injury.
Both are mobile, but I think I like the idea of Saunders one-on-one on the perimeter with Flagg better than I like the idea of Cofie trying to keep up there – though, honestly, I don’t like the idea of anybody in the Virginia rotation having to go one-on-one on the perimeter with Flagg.
As far as getting some offense, Duke is ranked fourth in the nation in KenPom in adjusted defense (0.906 points per possession), and if you paid attention above to the guys’ listed heights, that’s one reason why.
This Duke team is big – indeed, KenPom reports back that the average height of its rotation is a shade under 6’8”, which ranks first nationally.
Virginia has been getting good offense of late – averaging 1.217 points per possession over its last seven.
The mover/blocker can be tough to have to defend in a one-game scenario, and compounding that issue for Duke is its youth, and relative lack of experience of guys who have had to defend the Virginia base offense.
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Chris Graham
