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The Nats’ path to winning the World Series: Split in Houston, then …

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washington nationalsThe Houston Astros are the biggest World Series favorite since the 2007 Boston Red Sox, who swept Colorado on the way to a world title.

This seems to ignore that the Astros and the Washington Nationals are essentially identical in terms of performance since May 24.

The Nats have compiled an 82-40 record since May 24; the Astros are 81-41.

Houston has home-field advantage, so that should denote some edge toward the Astros.

Assuming the series gets past Game 5, the final game is played in Minute Maid Park, which can get loud.

You’d be likely to see someone from the grouping of Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander or Zack Greinke, perhaps two of those three, to either close out the series in a Game 6, or get back to even and then win a Game 7.

Again, edge to Houston there.

The Nats’ path to winning the World Series is fraught with peril. Washington’s pair of aces, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, match up in Games 1 and 2 with Cole and then Verlander.

Cole hasn’t lost since May 22; Verlander might have been better overall in 2019, which is scary.

But Washington doesn’t need to beat both; you only need one to get back to DC at a game apiece.

The 2-3-2 format, if the road team can earn a split, then gives that team home-field, at least in theory.

Nats manager Davey Martinez presumably has Patrick Corbin for Game 3, but Martinez said Monday that he isn’t set on Corbin for Game 3, and indicated that he may be thinking of using Corbin as needed in relief in either Game 1 or Game 2.

If Corbin goes in Game 1, in a LOOGY situation, he can still go in Game 3. Not so sure if he can’t also be a LOOGY in Game 2 and still not get the start in Game 3.

Anything more than one out in either, and it’s Anibal Sanchez in Game 3, which, considering how Sanchez performed in his one 2019 postseason start, seven and two-thirds innings of one-hit ball in Washington’s 2-0 win in Game 1 of the NLCS, that’s acceptable.

It’s better if Sanchez is your Game 4 guy, which keeps Scherzer and Strasburg on normal rest for Game 5 and a Game 6.

Houston went with a staff day for Game 6 of the ALCS to keep Cole on normal rest for a possible Game 7, which suggests that manager A.J. Hinch would do the same in a Game 4, especially if he’s up 2-1.

Even losing that one to get back to 2-2, he still has Cole, Verlander and Greinke for 5, 6 and 7, and he’d have to like his chances.

It would be interesting to see how Hinch would play it if the Nats are up 2-1 going into Game 4. He could pull a Bobby Cox and try to ride it out, still going staff day in 4 to have Cole, Verlander and Greinke on normal rest, but would he push the panic button and have Cole go on short rest?

Best-case scenario for the Nats in 1 and 2 is getting a split. And no, that’s not overlooking that the obvious best-case is winning both.

Don’t delude yourself into thinking that is possible.

Get back to DC at 1-1, have Corbin for Game 3, win that one, and put pressure on Hinch to reframe his thinking on his staff.

The Nats can win this one in five if things play out that way.

Best-case for Houston is taking the first two in Minute Maid, have Martinez blow up Corbin so that he has to go with Sanchez for Game 3, win that one, and then Martinez has to bring back Scherzer on short rest for Game 4.

That happens, and it’s an Astros sweep.

Most likely, this series gets back to Houston for at least a Game 6.

Again, most likely, it’s Verlander against Strasburg, either side trying to close out the other.

If we get to a Game 7, it’s Greinke-Corbin or Greinke-Sanchez/Scherzer/Corbin et al.

There is a path for the Nats to win the World Series. It involves winning one of the first two.

Column by Chris Graham

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