North Carolina has talent. Mack Brown’s six recruiting classes, dating back to his arrival in 2019, have ranked 31st, 14th, 14th, 11th, 31st and 26th in the 247Sports national rankings.
When you average a Top 25 class, you should expect more than a 41-31 record in Brown’s six seasons in his Act II in Chapel Hill, and yet, that’s where things are, with his Year 6 team sputtering to a 3-4 record to this point in the 2024 season, the four all coming in a row as Brown brings his Tar Heels into Charlottesville on Saturday.
JMU, which has since lost at Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern, scoring a combined 33 points in those losses, hung 70 on UNC on Sept. 21, 53 in the first half.
Duke rallied from a 20-0 deficit to win by one.
Pitt ran up 520 yards of total offense in a 34-24 win.
Georgia Tech put up 505, and a 68-yard TD run by Jamal Haynes with 16 seconds left was the difference in a 41-34 win.
For Virginia, which has been stuck on four wins for a couple of weeks, this one on Saturday is a must-win for coach Tony Elliott, who needs #5 to have a chance to get to #6 with a schedule after the Nov. 2 bye that has road games at #19 Pitt and #12 Notre Dame, a home game with #22 SMU and the finale at Virginia Tech to close things out in November.
For UNC, I’m not sure where things go from here, because I don’t see Brown doing more than finishing out the season, and a disappointing tenure.
North Carolina offense
Jacolby Criswell, a grad senior who transferred in from Arkansas, lost the QB1 battle in camp to another grad transfer, Max Johnson, but took over when Johnson went down with a broken leg in the season opener, a 19-17 win over Minnesota.
Criswell has serviceable counting numbers – 227.8 yards passing per game, 56.2 percent completion rate, 8 TDs/3 INTs.
The completion rate isn’t good.
He’s under pressure a lot – the UNC offensive line has allowed 14 sacks, and Criswell has been under pressure on 40.6 percent of his dropbacks.
On those dropbacks, his completion rate dips to 36.6 percent.
If the UVA D line can get pressure, the D as a unit can have success.
Senior tight end Bryson Nesbit is a big target (6’5”), but somehow UNC QBs are only 24-of-48 for 264 yards, three TDs and one INT throwing in his direction.
Glaring number in his data: five drops.
Big (6’2”, 210) senior wideout JJ Jones has 21 catches on 39 targets for 364 yards, two TDs, zero INTs on pass targets and two drops.
Another tight end, John Copenhaver, has 18 catches on 25 targets for 193 yards, three TDs, one INT on a pass target and three drops.
You see the recurring theme: drops are an issue with this group.
Wideout Kobe Paysour (13 catches/22 targets, 221 yards, two drops) and slot receiver Nate McCollum (14 catches/20 targets, 160 yards, one drop) are the other frequent targets.
Tailback Omarion Hampton has 20 catches on 23 targets (one drop), with 11 catches on 14 targets for 88 yards on screens, and a perfect nine catches on nine targets on passes that travel less than nine yards downfield.
Hampton puts up big numbers on the ground – 128.7 yards per game, 5.8 yards per attempt.
The rushing attack will attack the middle and right side of the offensive line. UNC has gained 571 yards on 82 attempts (7.0 yards per attempt) up the A gap and 426 yards on 73 attempts (5.8 yards per attempt) running to the right side of the line.
The onus will be on the UVA D to limit the damage on first down to get the North Carolina offense behind the chains on second and third downs.
Do that, and you can get pressure on Criswell, who does not do well with pressure.
North Carolina defense
The D has been gashed unabashedly in the past four, allowing an average of 507.5 yards per game of total offense, and 227.0 yards per game on the ground.
Georgia Tech ran for 371 yards two weeks ago.
JMU, which put up 253 yards of total offense in a 28-14 loss to Georgia Southern, went for 611 in the 70-50 win in Chapel Hill last month.
In the run game, the Heels are most vulnerable on the edges – Georgia Tech went for 183 yards on 23 attempts (7.9 yards per attempt) around the left and right ends; JMU went for 94 yards on 10 attempts (9.4 yards per attempt) around the edges.
In the passing game, the cover corners have good numbers – Alijah Huzzle (63.1 NFL passer rating against), Marcus Allen (74.8 NFL passer rating against), Kaleb Cost (76.1 NFL passer rating against).
The vulnerabilities in pass coverage are at safety – Antavious Lane (128.5 NFL passer rating against) and Jakeen Harris (102.1 NFL passer rating against – and at the linebacker spots – Amare Campbell (129.2 NFL passer rating against) and Power Echols (99.0 NFL passer rating against).
Look for UVA offensive coordinator Des Kitchings to try to exploit this with crossing routes for wideout Malachi Fields (40 catches/65 targets, 606 yards, four TDs) and slot receiver Chris Tyree (16 catches/21 targets, 71 yards), and increased targeting for tight end Tyler Neville (22 catches/31 targets, 283 yards, two TDs).
I’d also expect some screen action in the passing game for Kobe Pace (14 catches/19 targets, 148 yards), a good pass-catching back.
Game Details
Saturday, Oct. 26, Noon ET
Series: North Carolina leads series, 65-59-4
Last meeting: Virginia, 31-27 (2023)
The CW: Thom Brennaman (play-by-play), Max Browne (analyst), Carla Gebhart (sideline)
SiriusXM Radio: SiriusXM 138 / SiriusXM 194 / SiriusXM 390
SiriusXM App: SiriusXM 956 / SiriusXM 970
Line: Virginia -3.5
Over/under: 59
Forecast final score: Virginia 31, North Carolina 27