I never like games coming off a long break, but at least Virginia and Virginia Tech are both coming off long holiday breaks – and Tech’s is actually longer; their last game was Dec. 20, an 82-81 OT win over Elon.
The Hokies (11-2, NET: 61) played that one without Tobi Lawal (12.8 ppg, 10.3 rebounds/g), who has been out of the lineup since Nov. 26, and Neoklis Avdalas (14.6 ppg, 5.0 assists/g, 44.4% FG, 37.1% 3FG), a 6’9” freshman who starts at the point, and gets minutes at the three and four spots.
Avdalas was out for the Elon game, officially, due to “illness”; let’s assume he’s back on Wednesday (2 p.m. ET, ACCN), and that he’s a fun matchup, being a 6’9” point.
The absence of Lawal has been problematic for Mike Young (116-87 in seven seasons at Tech); the Hokies are 5-2 since Lawal injured his left foot in the 66-64 win over Colorado State in the Battle 4 Atlantis last month, the losses coming in their first two games after Lawal went down (double-digit losses to Saint Mary’s and VCU).
It’s no sin to lose to Saint Mary’s (12-2, NET: 28) or VCU (9-4, NET: 58), but the 86-83 OT win at South Carolina (8-4, NET: 113), and the one-point OT win at home vs. Elon (8-5, NET: 145) tell you that this team isn’t the same without Lawal.
Rotation
The team’s leading scorer is 6’8” junior Amani Hansberry (16.3 ppg, 8.4 rebounds/g, 51.0% FG, 27.5% 3FG), who does most of his work in the paint (8.3 FGA/g, 62.0% FG in the paint, per CBB Analytics).
Hansberry will get a fair share of minutes as a small-ball five, surrounded by four guards.
The other guys in the mix at five are a pair of freshmen: Christian Gurdak (5.7 ppg, 3.8 rebounds/g) and Antonio Dorn (3.9 ppg, 2.2 rebounds/g).
Those two don’t get a lot of consistent minutes against Power 6 opponents, which is why I’ll be interested in the cat-and-mouse between Young and UVA coach Ryan Odom over matchups in this one.
I presume Young will want to go four-guard as much as he can get away with; Odom’s best lineup has 6’8” Thijs de Ridder and one of two seven-footers, Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso, the floor with three guards.
If de Ridder can guard Avdalas on defense, it will be Advantage: Odom.
As mentioned, Avdalas starts at the point, but Ben Hammond, a 5’11” sophomore, one of the two key guys off the bench for Young, actually gets more minutes, at the end of the day, at the point than Avdalas does.
Hammond (10.1 ppg, 3.5 assists/g, 39.6% FG, 31.3% 3FG) averages 26.8 minutes per game, and per KenPom, he’s been running the point for 68 percent of Tech’s minutes over the past five games, so, right at 27 minutes per game.
Jaden Schutt, a 6’5” junior, the other of the key bench guys, is a huge threat on the perimeter (10.6 ppg, 44.2% FG, 44.9% 3FG).
Tyler Johnson, a 6’5” sophomore, has started all 13 games (9.5 ppg, 5.3 rebounds/g, 53.0% FG, 41.7% 3FG).
The other regular starter is 6’4” senior Jailen Bedford (8.3 ppg, 42.5% FG, 35.1% 3FG).
One other bench guy to mention: 6’5” sophomore Izaiah Pasha (3.0 ppg, 10.0 minutes/g), who averaged 27.5 minutes per game in Tech’s pre-Christmas wins over Maryland Eastern Shore and Elon, but has averaged just 5.0 minutes per game in Tech’s games with Power 6 opponents.
Forecast
- KenPom: Virginia 80-76
- BartTorvik: Virginia 79-75
- ESPN BPI: Virginia +4.5
Video: UVA-Virginia Tech Basketball preview
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Chris Graham
