Virginia has never beaten Notre Dame on the football field.
Almost did back in 2015, should have, but almost and should have don’t count, not even in horseshoes.
Remember the picture of that kid leaning over in sad frustration after the 39-yard TD pass with 12 seconds left that put Notre Dame on top for good in that one?
That kid is probably a partner in a law firm or the head of surgery at a hospital now.
That was eight years ago. Going into this weekend, the eighth-ranked Irish (8-1) are 23-point favorites with UVA (5-4, 3-3 ACC) coming to South Bend (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
The only sliver of hope that’s there is the 1 in Notre Dame’s 8-1 record – the inexplicable 16-14 Irish loss in Week 2 to Northern Illinois, which hasn’t been anything special since (the Huskies are 6-4, 3-3 in the MAC).
In that one, Northern Illinois held Notre Dame to 286 total yards, forced two turnovers, and was nearly flawless on offense – running for 190 yards, fueling a nearly 10-minute advantage in time of possession.
In their last seven, the Irish are averaging 44.0 points per game, and their only close game in that stretch was a 31-24 win over Louisville on Sept. 28.
Two weeks later, you may remember, Virginia played Louisville into the final couple of minutes of a 24-20 loss.
The Louisville-Notre Dame game had an almost identical statistical profile as the Northern Illinois-Notre Dame game – Louisville had a 395-280 advantage in total offense, a four-minute edge in time of possession, the difference being, Louisville had three turnovers, two of which led to Notre Dame scores.
What I’m getting at here: there is a puncher’s chance for Virginia, if the ‘Hoos can shorten the game by being effective on the ground, avoid turnovers and penalties that give up field position, and get a big play or two on both sides of the ball.
Keys to the game
Anthony Colandrea needs to play within himself: Colandrea, the sophomore starting QB, was picked off twice last week in the 24-19 win at then-#18 Pitt, but one of those was a tipped ball in the red zone.
He was sacked six times, but each one was AC trying to extend plays with his feet.
Coach Tony Elliott talked this week about Colandrea needing to be able to better discern when to try to extend a play and when to throw the ball away to preserve field position
“And that’s kind of that Catch-22, right, because, man, he makes a lot of plays escaping from the pocket,” Elliott said. “Where he’s got to continue to grow is knowing that, OK, having the awareness of where I am, if I can get positive yards, get positive yards, but if it’s close, throw it away and don’t risk the sack or the lost yards. Not so much the sack, that’s on a piece of paper. We can come in here and all say, Oh, well, that wasn’t on the offensive line.
“We’ve got to coach the quarterback to get rid of the ball. So, we talked about it, but it wasn’t a huge deal because, again, I want him to extend plays, and we’re going to need him in a game like this to extend plays. He just has to get a better feel for, kind of, where the sticks are, where he is, and if he can get positive yards, get positive yards. If not, throw it away and just so that the sack doesn’t show up on paper or we take negative yards.”
The D needs to control the edges: Notre Dame has gained a net 1,983 yards rushing this season, and the areas of attack are around the right and left ends of the offensive line.
Per Pro Football Focus, the Irish have 51 rushing attempts at each end – and are averaging 8.8 yards per attempt running around the left end, and 6.6 yards per attempt running around the right end.
The D will need to have a particular point of focus on Riley Leonard, the Duke transfer QB, who averages 11.8 yards per rushing attempt around the left end and 6.9 yards per attempt around the right end.
“He looks like a different guy, to be honest with you,” Elliott said of Leonard, who QB’d Duke in two games against Virginia, getting mop-up duty in a 48-0 loss to UVA in 2021, then going 18-of-24 for 129 yards and a TD through the air, and adding 60 yards and two TDs on the ground, in a 38-17 win over the ‘Hoos in 2022.
“Just watching him, he’s very efficient throwing the ball, very decisive when he pulls it down to run. He looks very similar, but also making good decisions to protect himself at times. So I don’t know if past experience really, because he’s got a different supporting cast, different offensive line in front of him, but just excited for the match-up and the challenge,” Elliott said.
Details
Series: Notre Dame leads series, 4-0
Last meeting: Notre Dame, 28-3 (2021)
NBC: Dan Hicks (play-by-play), Jason Garrett (analyst), Zora Stephenson (sideline)
SiriusXM Radio: SiriusXM 85 / SiriusXM 129 / SiriusXM 381
SiriusXM App: SiriusXM 85 / SiriusXM 129 / SiriusXM 971
Line: Notre Dame -23
Over/under: 50
Projected final score: Notre Dame 37, Virginia 14
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Chris Graham
