The final Public Policy Polling survey of Virginia voters in the 2012 election cycle has Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by a four-point margin on Election Eve.
Obama has the support of 51 percent of Virginia voters, with Romney at 47 percent. PPP also has Democratic Party Senate nominee Tim Kaine on his way to victory in a closely-contested Senate with Republican George Allen – with Kaine at 52 percent and Allen at 46 percent.
In Ohio, PPP’s final poll of 2012 has Obama leading Romney 52 percent to 47 percent – on the strength of a 60 percent-39 percent advantage in early voting and a 10-point lead among women voters.
The fivethirtyeight average of Virginia polls gives Obama a 50.4 percent-48.9 percent lead in Virginia and a 73 percent chance of winning the state on Election Day. The fivethirtyeight rendering of Ohio has Obama ahead by 51.1 percent-47.9 percent margin and gives the president an 87 percent chance of winning the Buckeye State.
The late-race conventional wisdom regarding Florida and North Carolina has those two states heading into the Republican column, but PPP has the two as too close to call. In Florida, the lead for Romney is 50 percent-49 percent, and in North Carolina, the lead for Romney is 49.4 percent-49.2 percent.
According to fivethirtyeight, North Carolina is the longer shot for Obama, who trails in the poll average 50.7 percent-48.7 percent, with a 23 percent chance of winning. Florida is very much in play, though, according to fivethirtyeight, with Romney’s lead at 49.9 percent-49.6 percent, and Obama’s chance at winning at 44 percent.
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