Poll: Dems damned if they do, damned if they don’t on health-care reform

  
Story by Chris Graham
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A new Public Policy Polling survey seems to buttress the case that Democrats might be well-advised to go ahead and pass a health-care reform package – because the majority party seems destined to at least lose seats and possibly its upper hand in Congress whether they pass a reform bill or not.

Republicans lead 43 percent-to-40 percent on the most recent PPP generic congressional ballot. The pollster then tested voter preferences in the event that health-care reform was passed and in the event that a reform is not passed. The margins were similar in both cases – 45 percent-to-41 percent in favor of Republicans in the event of passage, and 43 percent-to-38 percent for the GOP in the event that reform legislation was not passed.

The slight move downward for Democrats came from self-identifed Democratic voters, who will be slightly less likely to support Democratic candidates in the fall if the party isn’t able to follow through on its 2008 campaign promise to enact health-care reform.

“At this point it looks like the political damage for Democrats on health care has been done whether they end up passing the bill or not,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “Republican support for this fall is identical with or without it.”

A scenario similar to 1994 seems to be in the offing at this early stage in the 2010 midterm cycle. Democrats, rallied by President Bill Clinton, famously tried and failed to enact sweeping health-care reform in 1993, and lost their majorities in the House and Senate in the November 1994 midterms.

Republican leaders smell the blood in the water. A fundraising e-mail sent out today by Republican Party of Virginia chair Pat Mullins urges GOP supporters to pony up the money that will be needed to push Republican congressional candidates over the top in the Commonwealth.

“In 1994, Republicans defeated the Democrat’s majority in the U.S. House by winning 54 previously held Democratic seats. In 2010, Republicans only need 40 seats to re-capture the majority, and 10% of those seats are here in Virginia,” Mullins said in the e-mail.

“By defeating Second District Congressman Glenn Nye, Fifth District Congressman Tom Perriello, Ninth District Congressman Rick Boucher, and 11th District Congressman Gerry Connolly, we can send four new Republicans to Congress who will oppose the Obama/Pelosi/Reid agenda of higher taxes, more federal takeovers, and deficit spending,” Mullins said.