Game Details
Wake Forest (15-14, 6-10 ACC, NET: 69) at Virginia (25-4, 13-3 ACC, NET: 15)
Day/Time: Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Analytics: Wake Forest vs. UVA
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Wake Forest offense: 1.171 PPP (66)
Virginia defense: 0.963 PPP (16)
Virginia offense: 1.225 PPP (29)
Wake Forest defense: 1.065 PPP (111)
At the Rim
Wake Forest offense: 290/431, 66.1% (FGA/g: 323; FG%: 81)
Virginia defense: 264/474, 55.7% (FGA/g: 83; FG%: 17)
Virginia offense: 367/581, 63.2% (FGA/g: 104; FG%: 150)
Wake Forest defense: 316/472, 66.9% (FGA/g: 79; FG%: 320)
Paint 2s
Wake Forest offense: 165/345, 47.8% (FGA/g: 92; FG%: 34)
Virginia defense: 136/367, 37.1% (FGA/g: 307; FG%: 32)
Virginia offense: 116/266, 43.6% (FGA/g: 262; FG%: 118)
Wake Forest defense: 129/295, 43.7% (FGA/g: 157: FG%: 240)
Midrange 2s
Wake Forest offense: 69/188, 36.7% (FGA/g: 148; FG%: 176)
Virginia defense: 83/236, 35.2% (FGA/g: 336; FG%: 134)
Virginia offense: 40/96, 41.7% (FGA/g: 326; FG%: 47)
Wake Forest defense: 50/132, 37.9% (FGA/g: 35; FG%: 226)
Threes
Wake Forest offense: 263/768, 34.2% (3FGA/g: 62; 3FG%: 168)
Virginia defense: 194/631, 30.7% (3FGA/g: 120; 3FG%: 35)
Virginia offense: 294/825, 35.6% (3FGA/g: 29; 3FG%: 86)
Wake Forest defense: 265/795, 33.3% (3FGA/g: 347; 3FG%: 141)
Free throws
Wake Forest defense: 20.6 FTAs/g (180); 76.7% (39)
Virginia defense: 19.8 FTAs/g (138)
Virginia offense: 20.6 FTAs/g (177); 71.6% (219)
Wake Forest defense: 21.1 FTAs/g (220)
Rebounds
Offensive-Wake Forest: 30.4% (193)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.3% (98)
Offensive-Virginia: 38.5% (7)
Defensive-Wake Forest: 67.4% (287)
Turnover rate
Wake Forest offense: 15.5% (95)
Virginia defense: 16.0% (233)
Virginia offense: 15.9% (126)
Wake Forest defense: 18.6% (79)
Analysis
Wake is too soft defensively – they give up a lot at the rim and in the paint, and don’t rebound well.
They can score, but could have a challenge against Virginia’s elite interior defense.
I would look for Virginia to get healthy offensively after the ugly outing at Duke.
Forecast
KenPom: Virginia 81-67
BartTorvik: Virginia 80-67
ESPN BPI: Virginia +11.1
Game Coverage
Media timeout: Virginia 19-13, 7:54/1st
Sorry for the delay in reporting. The SID for UVA Athletics acted inappropriately toward me before the game, so I left the arena, and I’m just now back in the home office and catching up with the game.
More on what went down there that got me back in the car on a rainy and foggy night after the game.
It will not be pretty.
Scorched earth is coming.
To the game:
From what I can tell, another slow start.
Virginia is 7-of-18 from the floor, 2-of-11 from three, four turnover in 19 possessions.
Media timeout: Game tied at 22, 3:46/1st
It’s one thing to miss shots – Virginia is 8-of-26 FG, 3-of-16 3FG.
It’s another thing for good shooters to brick open threes, like Sam Lewis and Jacari White did on back-to-back possessions.
Half: Virginia 32, Wake Forest 24
By the way, the trend that I had noticed ahead of leaving the arena, that there was a sea of empties, persisted to the tip.
That’s embarrassing – to have tons of empties in March, for a team ranked 13th, and sitting at 25-4.
This is UVA Athletics having turned off fans early with the “this is not a reseating” reseating ahead of next season.
Congrats, right?
To the game:
Ugly half for both sides. Virginia was 11-of-30 from the field and 3-of-17 from three.
I’m not going to defend this anymore: attack the paint already.
This team is going to be one-and-done shooting that many contested threes.
Good job on D: Wake is 7-of-30 from the floor and 3-of-12 from three.
Better job on the boards, for once: 38.1 percent offensive-rebound rate, 75 percent defensive-rebound rate.
The bigs are actually getting rebounds: Johann Grunloh and Thijs de Ridder each have five, Ugonna Onyenso has four.
Myles Colvin, who had 32 points on 9-of-12 shooting (7-of-8 from three) in Wake’s win over Syracuse on Saturday, has four points on 1-of-7 shooting (0-of-2 from three) so far tonight.
Personal note:
I’ve not been more f–king pissed off as I am right now in my entire life.
Media timeout: Virginia 43-34, 14:43/2nd
Both teams are scoring more consistently, which is how I would’ve expected this one to start out, before settling in to, UVA asserting its will on defense.
Thijs de Ridder has 16 points (4-of-7 FG, 2-of-3 FG, 6-of-8 FT).
Jacari White has nine points despite being just 1-of-5 from three – he’s getting to the rim.
Media timeout: Virginia 50-41, 11:19/2nd
Both teams are 7-of-12 from the floor in the second half.
As bad as the offenses were in the first half, the defenses are as bad in the second half.
Wake is getting too many looks in the paint.
Media timeout: Virginia 53-45, 7:58/2nd
Wake is hanging around, uncomfortably so.
Virginia needs to assert its will on D here in this next stretch.
Wake is 9-of-18 and has 21 points on 18 possessions in the second half (1.105 PPP).
Media timeout: Virginia 63-57, under-4
The running box score is stuck at the 4:42 mark.
It feels like Wake could be poised for something here.
Virginia has had every opportunity to land the knockout punch.
Final: Virginia 75, Wake Forest 70
Wake Forest trailed by as many as 12 early in the second half, but got the deficit to three in the final seconds, before Virginia was able to close things out at the free-throw line, finishing off a 75-70 win.
Recap (and the more interesting tale of how I came to cover the game from the home office, after driving back and forth to and from Charlottesville) to come.
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Chris Graham
