New UVA football coach Tony Elliott and offensive coordinator Des Kitchings inherited a high-powered offense that, under their watch, now seems irrevocably broken.
That Elliott seems at a loss as to why is among the things that have some fans questioning the direction of the new regime.
“I think it’s starting to come together. It is a transition. It’s a change,” Elliott told reporters at his weekly presser on Tuesday.
The parts about “transition” and “change” are spot-on; the idea that “it’s starting to come together,” well, let’s hope so.
QB1 Brennan Armstrong had worked under former offensive coordinator Robert Anae for four years, and had clearly mastered Anae’s Air Raid, passing for 4,449 yards, 31 TDs, a 65.2 percent completion rate and a 156.4 passer rating in 2021.
As good as Armstrong was in the Air Raid, he’s been almost as bad in the Elliott/Kitchings pro-style offense.
Through four games, he’s passed for 848 yards – 212.0 yards per game, barely half the 404.5 yards per game he averaged last season – just three TDs, a 52.1 percent completion rate, and a 104.4 rating.
At least part of the issue, no doubt, has been the overhaul that Elliott and Kitchings had to do to the offensive line. All five starters and the top reserve from a year ago left after the previous head coach, Bronco Mendenhall, stepped down in December, two to take their shot at the NFL, the other four to the transfer portal.
Armstrong, behind that 2021 O line, was only pressured on 26.3 percent of his dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus; in 2022, he has been pressured on 42.0 percent of his dropbacks.
The conventional thinking that a QB doesn’t do as well under pressure is demonstrated in the numbers. Again according to PFF, Armstrong, last year, had a 45.1 percent completion rate and 78.3 NFL passer rating on his throws under pressure – note that the NFL passer rating numbers are on a different scale, and are much lower, than the college passer rating scale.
This year under pressure, BA has a 40.4 percent completion rate and a 37.5 NFL passer rating.
What’s interesting in the details is taking a look at Armstrong’s throws over the past two years in clean pockets.
In 2021, he had a 69.1 percent completion rate and 111.0 NFL passer rating; in 2022, the completion rate is 57.1, and the NFL passer rating is 79.9.
The NFL passer rating for Armstrong in a clean pocket this year at 79.9 is just tick above his passer rating under pressure at 78.3 under pressure a year ago.
There’s something more than “transition” and “change” at play here. Armstrong and his receivers are clearly not comfortable in the scheme, which is a bit on them, sure, but there’s got to be some accountability on the part of Elliott, Kitchings, QB coach Taylor Lamb, and wide receivers coach Marques Hagans.
“We’re challenging Brennan to throw on rhythm, which is a little bit different than what he’s used to,” Elliott said. “He’s used to kind of sitting back there, being able to let things unfold. Some of the things we’re asking him to do is to throw on rhythm.
“We’re asking the guys to read coverage and be able to make some adjustments. With that, it takes a little bit of time, chemistry and cohesion. We’re not far. We just need to find a way to hit that big one.”
The reason for frustration from fans: they had all spring, July and August, and now four weeks of game prep to develop the “chemistry and cohesion,” and for those who want to say it’s all on the players, these are the same guys who put up eye-popping numbers last year, and now we’re supposed to think that they’re schlubs off the street.
Elliott at least tried to put a positive spin on things in his Tuesday presser.
“We’re not far off. The guys got to just continue to work, continue to believe, to have confidence in the direction that we’re going,” he said.
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Chris Graham
