Can Virginia gain yards on the ground with Brennan Armstrong ailing?

Assuming Brennan Armstrong starts Saturday night against #7 Notre Dame, and I am, assuming, that is, how will his apparent rib injury limit him?

First and foremost, assume he’s no longer a factor in the ground game, which, that sucks.

I say that because, think back to Weeks 3 and 4, when Armstrong was limited with a knee injury suffered late in the Week 2 win over Illinois.

Week 3, Armstrong threw for a school-record 554 yards in the 59-39 loss to UNC, but Virginia ran for a sack-adjusted 42 yards, with Armstrong getting just one designed run, for two yards. He also scrambled four times for seven yards.

Against Wake Forest in Week 4, Armstrong threw for 390 yards, and gained 147 yards on the ground, but 73 yards of that came on Armstrong scrambles, and he had just four designed runs, for six net yards.

His past two games, the 48-40 win over Georgia Tech in Week 8, the 66-49 loss to BYU in Week 9, Armstrong has gained 224 net yards rushing on 13 attempts, seven scrambles (for 50 yards) and six designed runs (for 164 yards).

It’s not a coincidence that Virginia has gone over the 200-yard mark on the ground the past two weeks. A healthy Armstrong, in the read-option, is a threat to take off on designed runs, and that keeps the weakside defensive end honest, because if he cheats toward the ball-carrier, BA can get second-level real quick.

With BA nursing sore ribs, the defense doesn’t have to account for him. He’s basically Lindell Stone back there.

He’s still a threat on play-action, though offensive coordinator Robert Anae doesn’t call many of those – just 69 of Armstrong’s 407 pass attempts this season are off play-action, though his NFL pass rating on those pass attempts, 127.9, is better than his 105.5 NFL pass rating overall.

Maybe you see Anae go to more play-action with Armstrong damaged goods, though, I doubt it. I went back and looked at the Carolina and Wake games, and his pass attempts in play-action were similar, percentage-wise, to his season numbers.

And play-action really only works if the defense is softened up by the run.

Virginia hasn’t shown the ability to get a traditional run game going this year.

Anae has the guys to do it – the backs, an experienced and productive O line.

It just doesn’t seem to fit what he wants to do.

I think you’re more likely to see more wildcat snaps for Keytaon Thompson, Jacob Rodriguez, Ira Armstead, with Armstrong still in the game, lining up either at running back, in the slot or out wide, as the focus of the effort to change things up from the dozens of dropbacks.

The Notre Dame run defense is ranked 15th nationally by Pro Football Focus, which ranks the Irish’s pass coverage 31st and pass rush 59th.

The pass coverage and pass rush will improve by an order of magnitude if the Domers are able to make the Virginia offense one-dimensional.

This is likely to be a rest of the season issue for UVA, given the time frame for recovery from rib injuries.

Story by Chris Graham