Bubble Watch: Assessing where things stand for VCU, North Carolina

I’m following two teams ahead of Selection Sunday – VCU, whose coach, Ryan Odom, may be the next head coach at Virginia, and North Carolina, which just extended Hubert Davis, despite him being on the bubble of missing out on the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years.

Joe Lunardi has VCU in, but as the automatic qualifier from the A-10, and as the AQ, just as an 11 seed, which suggests that the self-styled bracketology guru thinks the Rams (26-6) need to win the A-10 Tournament to get a bid.

I’m not of that line of thinking.

Looking at the various algorithmic renderings of the D1 landscape, VCU has an average computer ranking of 32.8 from among the NET, KenPom, ESPN BPI, BartTorvik, RPI and KPI.

The deeper dive shows a 3-1 record in Quad 1 games and a 4-4 record in Quad 2 games.

It’s hard for me to imagine that VCU, with this resume, is left on the outside looking in just because they lose the A-10.

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Especially because Lunardi seems to think Dayton (22-10) is among the First Four Out with a resume that includes an average computer ranking of 66.2, and a 3-3 record in Quad 1s and 3-6 record in Quad 2s.

Dayton has a profile more comparable to George Mason (25-7) – an average computer ranking of 62.6, and a 1-3 record in Quad 1s and 4-0 record in Quad 2s.

And nobody is talking about Mason getting a bid unless it wins the A-10.

Now to the case of UNC (22-13), which couldn’t beat #1 Duke last night with Cooper Flagg out of the lineup, and thus missed out on a shot at a second Quad 1 win.

Yes, VCU has two more Quad 1 wins than Carolina, and Mason has the same number.

The Tar Heels are (gasp!) 1-12 in Quad 1 games, 8-0 in Quad 2s, and have an average computer ranking of 36.5.

That’s bubblicious right there.