ODU already has one ACC pelt, in the form of the 20-17 win over Virginia Tech in Norfolk in Week 1, in which the Monarchs forced five Virginia Tech turnovers and held the Hokies to 333 yards.
UVA, on its sideline, is reeling, putting up just 222 yards in a listless 24-3 loss at Illinois in Week 2.
Virginia coach Tony Elliott said the ODU side senses “blood in the water” as it prepares to face the Cavaliers in Scott Stadium on Saturday (2 p.m. ACC Network).
Vegas has the ‘Hoos as an eight-point favorite with an over/under at 53, supposing a final score in the range of 31-23.
I’m not sure the score gets anywhere near that high.
First key: Can Virginia move the ball?
The ODU defense was stellar in Week 1. In Week 2, not so much.
East Carolina rolled up 531 yards, 261 on the ground, and ran 86 plays on offense in the 39-21 win in Greenville.
Elliott supposes that ODU coach Ricky Rahne and his staff will try to use some five-man fronts to mimic what Illinois did last week to create havoc for UVA QB1 Brennan Armstrong.
The bet here is that Virginia offensive coordinator Des Kitchings looks at what ECU was able to do to gash the Monarchs D and tries to go early and often to the ground.
Second key: Limiting turnovers
As good as ODU was defensively in Week 1, the Monarchs don’t win if not for the five Tech turnovers, four of them INTs by QB Grant Wells.
The other, a bad snap on a field-goal try, led to an ODU return TD.
The ODU offense hasn’t generated much on its own through two games in 2022.
If the UVA offense can limit turnovers, the ‘Hoos D, which largely held its own in the loss at Illinois, should be fine.
Bottom line: A UVA win, but …
There will be some white-knuckling in the stands in the fourth quarter.
Forecast: UVA 20, ODU 10
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Chris Graham
