Game Details
Miami (21-5, 10-3 ACC, NET: 37) at Virginia (23-3, 11-2 ACC, NET: 16)
Day/Time: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2 (Wes Durham & Randolph Childress)
Analytics: Miami offense vs. UVA defense
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Miami: 1.194 PPP (54)
Virginia: 0.956 PPP (15)
Threes
Miami: 33.1% (232)
Virginia: 29.5% (12)
At the Rim
Miami: 411/602, 68.3% (40)
Virginia: 233/414, 56.3% (23)
Paint 2s
Miami: 170/357, 47.6% (41)
Virginia: 124/333, 37.2% (50)
Rebounds
Offensive- Miami: 37.1% (17)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.7% (76)
Turnover rate
Miami: 16.1% (129)
Virginia: 16.2% (225)
Analytics: UVA offense vs. Miami defense
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Virginia: 1.216 PPP (34)
Miami: 1.002 PPP (36)
Threes
Virginia: 35.5% (89)
Miami: 35.3% (248)
At the Rim
Virginia: 333/531, 62.7% (162)
Miami: 245/393, 62.3% (178)
Paint 2s
Virginia: 110/252, 43.7% (123)
Miami: 119/296, 40.2% (129)
Rebounds
Offensive-Virginia: 39.9% (3)
Defensive-Miami: 74.3% (15)
Turnover rate
Virginia: 16.0% (121)
Miami: 18.5% (88)
Forecast
KenPom: Virginia 77-69
BartTorvik: Virginia 77-67
ESPN BPI: Virginia +7.2
Analysis
- Miami attacks: top 20 in the country in makes at the rim and success on the offensive glass.
- Miami ranks first in ACC games in free-throw attempts per game (22.9). This will challenge a Virginia team that can, at times, be foul-prone, or at least, have fouls called in bunches.
- Miami doesn’t shoot threes well, against a Virginia defense that is among the best at defending the three. They don’t shoot a lot of them – 18th, dead-last, in conference games, 313th nationally in all games.
- Miami doesn’t defend the three well, against a Virginia team that shoots it well, and a lot. This could be key for Virginia: to attack the paint for kickouts for open threes, and to work the offensive boards for offensive-rebound threes, which are the best shots in basketball.
- Depth could be an issue for Miami, which gets 29.1 percent of its minutes from its bench, and really only goes seven deep.
Bottom line
I see this one being closer than the predictive sites do, even if the final score ends up being closer to what they project, if that makes sense.
This feels like the kind of game that Virginia wins with its depth as much as anything.
Live Coverage
Pregame: Injury report
Devin Tillis is listed as “out.” Not surprising, considering the way his knee crumpled on that play in the final minutes of the win at Georgia Tech on Wednesday.
Media timeout: Virginia 11-7, 15:11/1st
Virginia is 4-of-5 at the rim and 1-of-3 from three.
Scouts in attendance: Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets, Brooklyn Nets.
Word is, Devin Tillis will be back for Tuesday’s game with NC State.
Media timeout: Miami 17-13, 11:25/1st
Jai Lucas has changed the rhythm of this game by going zone, and since, Virginia has gone 1-of-6 from the field.
Ryan Odom tried to counter by going with a four-guard lineup, but that didn’t work.
Miami timeout: Miami 24-18, 8:01/1st
Virginia still hasn’t figured out the zone; the last two buckets, a layup by Thijs de Ridder and a three by Sam Lewis, came off breaks.
Maybe that’s the key: live-ball turnovers and quick outlets on misses.
Miami is owning the boards: 10-1 on the defensive end, 5-5 on the offensive end.
Media timeout: Game tied at 39, 00:45/1st
Jacari White: he’s good.
White shot Miami out of the zone: 3-of-5 3FG, 11 points.
Half: Miami 44, Virginia 39
Miami, shooting 33.1 percent from three on the season, is 5-of-8 from three – which will not persist.
Tru Washington, 31.4 percent on the season from three, is 3-of-3 from three.
Virginia rallied from 11 down by making nine of its last 13 from the floor.
Defense needs to tighten up: Miami is 17-of-30 from the floor, and is still owning the boards – 12-3 on defense, 6-7 on offense.
Media timeout: Virginia 51-50, 15:25/2nd
Virginia has hit two threes and made three trips to the free-throw line in the second half thus far.
Miami is still hitting threes: 2-of-4 3FG in the second half.
Second half rebounds: Virginia 7-1.
Media timeout: Virginia 61-59, 10:38/2nd
Virginia is 6-of-8 from the floor and 8-of-10 from the line in the second half.
Miami is hanging around despite 4-of-14 FG shooting: 3-of-6 from three is how.
Miami timeout: Virginia 68-61, 8:54/2nd
Malik Thomas three, Chance Mallory fastbreak layup.
Thijs de Ridder ran interference on the layup.
Virginia timeout: Miami 71-70, 5:19/2nd
Miami on a 10-2 run, fueled by second-chance buckets.
Media timeout: Virginia 76-75, 3:47/2nd
It’s a dogfight, folks.
Miami stayed in the zone. If I’m Lucas, I get out of it here, to give Virginia a different look.
Final: Virginia 86, Miami 83
Chance Mallory hit three free throws with 3.6 seconds left to break an 83-83 tie, Thijs de Ridder stole a crosscourt pass to break up a play out of a timeout for an attempted three to seal it, and Virginia got the win, 86-83.
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Chris Graham
