Virginia (10-3, 1-1 ACC) gets its second straight game with a team 5-7 team coming off a long holiday break when it faces Louisville on Wednesday at 7 p.m. at JPJ.
In the last one, as you know, Notre Dame, got out to an early 13-0 lead and never looked back in a 76-54 win in South Bend on Saturday.
A similar performance from Louisville (5-7, 0-1 ACC) would be just as unexpected as that one was for Virginia fans.
The UL program is so down right now that the AD, Josh Heird, had to give head coach Kenny Payne, who is 9-35 in his second season at Louisville, a vote of confidence after the 95-76 loss to Kentucky on Dec. 21.
“Kenny is going to serve as our head coach as we move into the new year, and I’m going to do what I do with every one of our programs, which is evaluate what’s happening throughout the season,” Heird said. “I want this basketball team to be great. And it’s a long way from that right now. So, I absolutely understand frustrations. I live it. You know, this is my job, and I’m going to work every day to try to get us back to that point. And I have confidence that we can.”
The dreaded vote of confidence never ends up working out well for the guy who gets it, which would seem to suggest that the Cardinals might come out of their holiday break just a smidge motivated, because their guy’s job might be on the line.
Factor in the blood that they have to be smelling in the water after Virginia’s ugly loss at Notre Dame, and, well, Virginia fans are prone to overthinking things as it is, so I shouldn’t pile on here.
Rotation guys
Payne has been going with a seven-man rotation, with the bulk of the minutes going to the starters.
The leading scorer is 6’3” sophomore Illinois transfer Skyy Clark (15.8 ppg, 2.7 assists/g, 39.5% FG, 28.3% 3FG).
Three other guys average in double digits:
- 6’7” sophomore USC transfer Tre White (12.7 ppg, 6.1 rebs/g, 40.3% FG, 27.3% 3FG)
- 6’5” sophomore Mike James (12.3 ppg, 6.2 rebs/g, 39.8% FG, 33.3% 3FG)
- 6’8” senior JJ Traynor (10.1 ppg, 4.6 rebs/g, 51.6% FG, 36.8% 3FG)
Traynor hasn’t played since the 75-68 loss at Virginia Tech on Dec. 3. I can’t find word on his status for Wednesday.
Two other guys get big minutes for Payne:
- 6’10” junior Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (9.8 ppg, 9.3 rebs/g, 54.8% FG)
- 6’0” freshman Ty-Laur Johnson (8.3 ppg, 3.5 assists/g, 35.4% FG, 22.2% 3FG)
What stands out
- Offensive rebounding: Louisville ranks 63rd in KenPom in offensive rebound percentage (33.6%), which has been a weak point for Virginia this season (opponents have a 32.2% offensive rebound rate, 270th nationally).
- Three-point shooting: Lousiville neither shoots threes well (28.9%, 328th nationally) or a lot (18.2 attempts/g, 323rd nationally).
- Post play: Payne likes to feed the post (44.2% of UL’s shots are at the rim, ranking 52nd nationally), but his guys aren’t that efficient in the post (55.0% FG percentage, 281st nationally).
Analysis
Virginia is struggling of late, but this one should be (look at me hedging there) the kind of game that can get the Cavaliers back on the right track.
- KenPom: Virginia 70-58, 88% win probability
- BartTorvik: Virginia 68-56, 91% win probability
- EvanMiya: Virginia 72-61, 87.1% win probability
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Chris Graham
