Virginia got out to a 26-3 start, and stumbled home to a 13-16 finish. Your suspicions are correct: the torrid first half was a function of weak strength of schedule.
But that’s not the whole story as to why Virginia’s once-promising season came to what seems to be a premature end, as you’ll see if you keep reading.
The aggregate record of Virginia’s first-half foes was 383-476, with just six of the 16 opponents finishing with winning records, and three of those teams getting NCAA Tournament bids.
The record of the second-half teams was 543-324, with 13 of those 15 opponents finishing with winning records, and nine of those programs getting NCAA bids.
And among the six who didn’t were ODU (41-17) and Clemson (35-23), who more than a few folks thought should have gotten in.
Virginia’s record overall against teams with winning records: 19-18.
The record overall against the 12 NCAA Tournament teams: 7-12.
Per WarrenNolan.com, Virginia was 21-0 against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents.
Down the road in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech, which was 21-8 in its first 29 games, and has gone 23-4 since, is currently 21-2 against Quad 3 and Quad 4.
Also per WarrenNolan.com, Virginia had a tougher non-conference strength of schedule (165, vs. Tech’s 213) and overall strength of schedule (33, vs. Tech’s 53).
So, the Hokies actually played a weaker schedule.
Why they’re still playing: they are 17-9 in Quad 1 games; Virginia finished 13-15 in Quad 1 games.
Fleshing out the comparison: Tech is 17-9 against the 11 NCAA Tournament foes it has played to date, and 23-12 against teams with winning records.
The conclusion here: Virginia’s downfall wasn’t a weak early schedule, but rather, just not being good enough against quality programs.
Story by Chris Graham
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