We’re three days into a nine-day Christmas break for UVA Basketball, which means, at this writing, the kids are back home with their families, getting a brief respite from months of classes, practices, travel, games, before returning later in the week to get ready for the grind of the ACC.
I wish I could deliver a Christmas gift for Virginia fans, in the form of a rosy projection that it’s going to get better from here – here being, 7-5, with an 0-4 record against Top 25 teams, three of those losses by 18 or more.
Hey, we beat Villanova.
What the metrics say
The outlook, going forward, isn’t good.
- KenPom projects a 15-16 regular-season finish, 8-12 in the ACC.
- BartTorvik is a little more positive: 16-15, 9-11 ACC.
- WarrenNolan also goes with 16-15, 9-11 ACC.
This, obviously, is nowhere near the preseason expectations.
The ACC media pegged Virginia to finish fifth in the conference, which suggested NCAA Tournament bid – last year’s fifth-place team, Clemson, won 21 regular-season games, and ended up making it to the Elite Eight, for those keeping score at home.
Eight or nine ACC wins means playing on a Tuesday at the ACC Tournament for the first time in program history.
It also means reverting back to where the program was in the first two years of Tony Bennett’s rebuild – Virginia was 15-16, 5-11 ACC in Year 1, in 2009-2010, and 16-15, 7-9 ACC, in Year 2, 2010-2011, before things would get turned around.
The metrics for this year’s team look like the first two years of the Bennett era more than the good years between 2013 and 2021 or the so-so last couple.
The 2009-2010 team, for instance, ranked 87th nationally in KenPom in adjusted offense (1.080 points per possession) and 71st nationally in adjusted defense (0.972 PPP).
The 2010-2011 team was 159th in offense (1.040 PPP) and 71st in defense (0.980).
The only team since with a remotely similar profile was the 2021-2022 team that went to the NIT with a 21-14 final record – which ranked 85th in offense (1.076 PPP) and 59th in defense (0.964 PPP).
The other years saw a Top 25 ranking in at least one of the categories, with three of the teams ranking in the Top 25 on both offense and defense, and two – the 2016 Elite Eight team and the 2019 national-title team – ranking in the Top 10 nationally in both.
This year’s team’s rankings: 210th on offense (1.049), 39th on defense (0.982).
And the defense numbers are skewed a bit: in the six games of the 12 played so far against power conference opponents, UVA is yielding 1.108 points per possession, which would rank in the 250s nationally for a full season.
Down year for the ACC
It doesn’t help that this is shaping up to be another down year for the ACC.
The Haslametrics current projected 68-team field has the ACC getting just four bids – Duke as a #1 seed, Pitt as a six seed, Clemson as a nine and North Carolina as an 11, just ahead of the Last Four In.
The current metrics profiles for each:
- Duke: KenPom 2, BartTorvik 3, Haslam 3, NET 3
- Pitt: KenPom 25, BartTorvik 26, Haslam 27, NET 11
- Clemson: KenPom 31, BartTorvik 34, Haslam 38, NET 39
- UNC: KenPom 28, BartTorvik 33, Haslam 26, NET 34
For reference, Virginia is KenPom 100, BartTorvik 96, Haslam 108, NET 102.
The problem here for UVA Basketball is the relative lack of depth in the ACC this year means, fewer opportunities for big wins that can improve the metrics.
Best-case scenario, eight of the remaining 19 games are Quad 1s:
- at Stanford (Jan. 11)
- SMU (Jan. 15)
- at Louisville (Jan. 18)
- at Pitt (Feb. 3)
- Duke (Feb. 17)
- at UNC (Feb. 22)
- at Wake Forest (Feb. 26)
- Clemson (March 1)
Stanford is currently 83 in NET; they’ll have to be 75th or better for that one to be a Quad 1.
SMU is 30 in NET; they’ll need to hold there (Quad 1s at home need to be 1-30).
Wake Forest is 105; again, the 75th or better rule for road games applies here.
Clemson is 39; 1-30 rule for home games.
So, eight is the ceiling, four is the floor.
Last year’s group got a Last Four In spot with a 2-7 record in Quad 1s, and we all saw how that turned out.
The best I can see it getting
For sake of argument, let’s project out that this year’s group gets things going and does what last year’s group did, and finishes 13-7 in the ACC, with a signature win – and that would have to be Duke, because there’s no other signature win in the ACC this year.
That leaves Virginia with a 20-11 record, maybe another 2-7 record in Quad 1s, ratings in the metrics in the 50s, more likely somewhere in the 60s.
This profile, the best I can see it profile, is, best-case, 2012-2013 (21-10, a February home win over Duke), and that one earned an NIT bid.
And this is the rosy scenario.
Nothing we’ve seen from this team to this stage suggests 13 ACC wins, and a win over Duke.
Maybe Joe Harris can drive over to Ron Sanchez’s house on New Year’s Eve.
It seemed to work that first time, when Joe had a talk with Tony.
Video: Can UVA Basketball get it turned around?
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Chris Graham
