The UVA Basketball team’s 83-75 win at Wake Forest on Wednesday was typical of late for this atypical Tony Bennett-era squad.
Virginia is averaging 73.5 points per game over its last eight games, and is averaging 1.220 points per possession in that stretch, which, looking for historical comparisons, is akin to the full-season numbers for the 2018-2019 national champs and the 2015-2016 Elite Eight team.
Difference being, those teams, which both ranked in the Top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, were also Top 10 teams nationally in adjusted defense.
This one is, decidedly, not that.
Over its last eight, in which UVA has a 5-3 record, the defense has been surrendering 71.3 points per game and 1.183 points per possession.
That total would rank in the bottom 15 nationally over the full 2024-2025 season.
Virginia, for the season, ranks 139th nationally, which would present as the worst-ever in the KenPom era, if that rank were to stand.
The KenPom era dates to the 1996-1997 season, which was the tail end of the Jeff Jones era.
A Pete Gillen team, the 2002-2003 group, finished 135th in adjusted defense.
Big nights, again, for McKneely, Ames, Rohde
Junior guard Isaac McKneely had 27 points (10-of-14 FG, 4-of-7 3FG, 3-of-3 FT), sophomore guard Dai Dai Ames had 14 points (5-of-11 FG, 1-of-4 3FG, 3-of-4 FT), and junior guard Andrew Rohde had 13 points (5-of-8 FG, 2-of-4 3FG, 1-of-3 FT) in the win at Wake last night.
Over his last 10 games, McKneely is averaging 18.8 points per game, shooting 52.1 percent from the floor and 44.4 percent from three, with 40 makes from three – an average of four makes per game.
Ames streak of good play dates back to the Feb. 1 game with Virginia Tech in which he went for 11 points in 28 minutes.
In his last seven, Ames is averaging 15.4 points per game, shooting 59.5 percent from the floor and 37.0 percent from three.
Rohde’s stretch of good play also dates to the Feb. 1 game with Tech; he returned for that one after having to miss a game with a lower-leg injury.
Since his return, Rohde is averaging 10.7 points and 6.1 assists per game, shooting 44.6 percent from the floor and 45.5 percent from three.
MIA: Blake Buchanan
Blake Buchanan, the 6’11” sophomore forward, was scoreless with one rebound in 11 minutes last night, which was particularly glaring because Virginia was missing 6’10” redshirt freshman Anthony Robinson, for undisclosed reasons.
Buchanan has hit the wall again – he did this last season, you may remember, averaging 2.3 points and 3.0 rebounds in 15.3 minutes per game on 33.3 percent shooting in Virginia’s nine games after Feb. 15.
Buchanan’s current numbers since Feb. 15 of his sophomore season: 2.0 points and 4.3 rebounds in 20.3 minutes per game on 33.3 percent shooting.
Saturday is Senior Day (don’t ask me why)
It’s odd to have Senior Day with another home game on the schedule after.
Maybe it’s because Saturday is the weekend.
This one brings #13 Clemson (23-5, 15-2 ACC) to town for the noon ET tip (ESPN2).
The quick and dirty on Clemson:
- Four guys average in double-figures, led by sixth-year senior guard Chase Hunter (16.7 ppg, 47.9% FG, 42.8% 3FG).
- It’s an old team – four starters are seniors, and the rotation guys include another senior and three juniors.
- Clemson ranks 12th nationally in three-point shooting (38.9 percent) and 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.211 points per possession).
- The defense ranks 28th (0.970 points per possession).
How Virginia matches up
Don’t @me for being crazy, but I don’t dislike the matchup for Virginia.
I can see Elijah Saunders (10.6 ppg, 5.1 rebounds/g, 42.0% FG, 37.2% 3FG) and Jacob Cofie (7.4 ppg, 4.7 rebounds/g, 49.4% FG, 25.0% 3FG) matching up well with Clemson’s four, Ian Schieffelin (12.9 ppg, 9.4 rebounds/g, 50.4% FG, 37.8% 3FG).
Brad Brownell goes with a three-man backcourt, like Virginia, and I like Virginia’s three-man backcourt against anybody (outside of Duke).
The glaring disadvantage is at the five spot, where we have Buchanan doing nothing over the past couple of weeks, and Clemson has 6’11” senior Viktor Lakhin (11.4 ppg, 6.1 rebounds/g, 50.4% FG, 38.6% 3FG).
If we don’t get Anthony Robinson back, the five spot will be trouble.
Forecast
- KenPom: Clemson 69-62
- BartTorvik: Clemson 67-61
- EvanMiya: Clemson 72-63
- Haslametrics: Clemson 69-61
- ESPN BPI: Clemson +8.3
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Chris Graham
