The Cook Political Report has adjusted its ratings in two Virginia congressional races for seats held by Republicans.
No, neither of them are out my way, in the western part of the state.
Because, you know, I mean, obviously.
Rob Wittman’s First District seat is now Leans Republican, with the writeup from CPR noting the candidacy of Shannon Taylor, the four-term Henrico County Commonwealth’s attorney, in the Democrat vote-heavy Richmond suburbs.
The Second District seat held by Jen Kiggans is now Republican Toss Up, per CPR, which notes a “likely rematch” with Elaine Luria, who Kiggans unseated in the 2022 midterm cycle.
Should be noted: the Democratic races in both the First and Second are far from having been decided.
Taylor and Luria, as big names, are probably the frontrunners, but in politics, you never know.
The two Republican districts in my neck of the woods – the Fifth, held by John McGuire, and the Sixth, held by Ben Cline – are, not surprisingly, still Solid Republican.
The CPR definition for Solid Republican is “races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.”
Duh, right.
But there’s good news for us here in our de facto urban Waynesboro-Staunton-Augusta County area who haven’t liked that we’ve been buried in a rural district.
The good news: things are about to change.
Need to be clear here: yes, we ran a guest column from Pete Barlow, one of the three announced candidates for the Democratic Party nomination in the Sixth, in which Pete went off on the proposed congressional redistricting, but Pete’s position is decidedly not ours.
ICYMI
Maybe it’s because he was in DC while a lot of this was going on, but Barlow completely misunderstands the most recent congressional redistricting here in Virginia as being the work of a “bipartisan commission,” when in fact, what happened was, it was supposed to have been done by a bipartisan commission, but the Republicans on the bipartisan commission, being Republicans, mucked up the process, so the Virginia Supreme Court had to intervene, and the district lines ended up being drawn by court-appointed special masters.
The new lines largely relied on the old, which were drawn by Republicans after the 2010 Census; which is why the Sixth still runs from Winchester to the Roanoke-Salem area, the Fifth still runs from Charlottesville-Albemarle down to the North Carolina border.
New maps being floated out there that could go into effect as soon as the upcoming 2026 midterms align Waynesboro-Staunton-Augusta County, rightly, to Charlottesville-Albemarle in an obvious Leans Democrat situation – with different proposals that have us in districts that could also align us with other mid-sized metro areas in Roanoke, Lynchburg and Harrisonburg that could push us in the direction of Solid Democrat.
Dare we dream.
It makes sense, from a communities-of-interest standpoint, to align mid-sized urban areas in our part of the state under the same umbrella, because we have similar interests and needs.
The current maps are based on district lines that were drawn in 2000 and 2010 by Republicans not to better represent us, but rather, dilute our political strength.
What particularly pi**ed me off from Barlow’s column was this line: “Democrats can win the Sixth, fair and square.”
What it seems is going on here, to me, is, he would rather be the nominee in a district that, even with the gains that he tried to hype in the recent 2025 cycle, still gave the Republican nominee for governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, a 16-point win over Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the Sixth, as opposed to being a distant runner-up in a primary with name candidates from the urban areas drawn to the race because Democrats can actually win out here within new district boundaries.
Me personally, I’m tired of butting my head against a wall because my congressman is a do-nothing MAGA Republican from 100 miles away who can’t be bothered to lift a finger to represent his district.
And I don’t care who ends up being the person to beat him, or to be blunt about it, how it’s done.
I want what’s best for my people here in Waynesboro-Staunton-Augusta County, and it’s not Ben Cline, and it’s not pretending that what’s best for agricultural mega-giants based out West is what’s best for us.
Fair and square, huh.
Them’s fighting words.
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Chris Graham
