The Men’s Final Four is set for this weekend, with all four No. 1 seeds making it to San Antonio.
That shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.
Why?
Simple.
Follow the money.
These days, it’s straightforward to build a college roster for success.
Show the kids the cash — lots of it.
March Madness was built on the backs of the underdog teams, and while there are no such underdog stories in this year’s final weekend, the tournament is still a must-see television event.
While some commentators, like ESPN squawker Stephen A. Smith, have commented that the lack of upsets and underdogs is terrible for the game, people are still watching.
Despite the talk of the NIL and transfer portal destroying the sport, the games are experiencing near-record-high views, indicating a completely different narrative than what’s being described.
TBS, CBS, TNT and truTV reported that viewership through the first two weeks of the tourney was about 9.4 million viewers, the most watched first two weekends in 32 years.
ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg has an entirely different view: “There is no sleeper in this Final Four. It’s good-on-good. We can talk about Cinderella all we want. I want to see good-on-good, and I want to see the best teams going at it.”
Since the NIL era began in 2021, there have been a scattering of teams to make impressive runs, but they have been the exception to the rule.
Florida Atlantic and San Diego State made it to the Final Four in 2023.
However, as revenue sharing becomes more prevalent, such teams will become even rarer.
Again, follow the money.
The networks prefer the big-name teams playing on the biggest stage.
The occasional underdog program creates some enjoyable storylines, but they don’t translate into higher viewership.
Checking last season’s Final Four matchups, the NC State-Purdue game saw almost three million fewer viewers than the other semifinal game between UConn and Alabama.
Again, while the NIL may be creating more super programs and fewer Cinderellas, the TV networks are excellent with that.
Maybe Greenberg has it right.
The money trail doesn’t just lead to buying better players, but also to attaining better coaches, who can, in turn, bring top talent.
Last season, Michigan, a heavyweight in athletics wealth, went shopping for a men’s basketball coach.
The Wolverines focused on Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May, who had just led the Owls to the Final Four.
Michigan wasn’t the only school in hot pursuit of May, but they had the resources, and they not only landed May, but also his top players and incoming recruits came with him.
Under May, Michigan was 27-10 this season, while Florida Atlantic was 18-16.
The NIL money trail has made the turnstile from the smaller school to the bigger school a routine afterthought.
And it will only get bigger.
When schools can invest almost $21 million per season in players under the pending House settlement, that money will be distributed back to primarily revenue sports, mainly in football and men’s and women’s basketball.
The payments will come from the schools, all above the table.
In 2026, every D1 college basketball team will likely receive revenue sharing from their school.
The rub is that at most schools, football will receive the lion’s share of the nearly $21 million.
This is all in addition to the NIL money earned by athletes independently.
Most D1 programs won’t have anywhere close to the $21 million revenue to begin with, and even more programs aren’t as fortunate when it comes to outside NIL sources.
And the gap between the haves and the have-nots will only broaden.
The NIL money and revenue sharing place the lesser opponents at an even more significant disadvantage.
The assembling of talent in players and coaches at the power conferences is enormous, and the smaller, lower revenue-generating schools have little to fight back with.
Men’s college basketball may absorb the brunt of this infusion of money the most.
At least at the highest levels.
Top NBA talent, like Duke’s Cooper Flagg, will still be a one-and-done player who departs after one season.
However, a significant portion of college players, the fringe NBA talent, will hang around in college, collecting what will probably be their highest-ever working paychecks.
Shopping their services yearly.
Following the money.
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