University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato is forecasting a Republican wave in the 2014 midterm elections on Tuesday. Sabato, in his final pre-election Crystal Ball, is projecting a net gain of eight seats for the Republican Senate caucus, which would give the GOP a 53-47 majority in the chamber in 2015. The professor is also projecting a net gain of nine seats for Republicans in the House to give the party a 243-192 majority there.
The analysis from the UVA Center for Politics founder and director is countered somewhat by the final pre-election polling from Public Policy Polling, which foresees some tightening across the board heading into Election Day.
PPP’s final polls in toss-up races in Colorado, Alaska and Iowa are leaning Republican, with two other tight races in Louisiana and Georgia, appearing to be headed to run-offs. The final PPP poll in New Hampshire has Democrat Jeanne Shaheen the favorite over Republican Scott Brown, by a narrow two-point margin, and the last PPP poll in the North Carolina race gives Democrat Kay Hagan a two-point edge over Republican Thom Tillis.
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has the chance of a GOP net gain of at least six seats needed to give the Republicans a Senate majority at 75 percent, but Silver also has the chance of the control of the chamber being decided by midday Wednesday at just 35 percent, citing the uncertainty of several close elections and the likelihood of at least one runoff being necessary after Election Day.
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