The 1 in Virginia’s 1-5 is still fresh in our minds, the tougher-than-the-score-says-it-was 27-13 win over William & Mary on Saturday.
The old Bill Parcells line posits that you are what your record says you are.
Which means, here, Virginia ain’t that good.
Twelfth in total offense in the ACC. Twelfth in total defense.
Five (5!) sacks in six games.
It’s not all bad. Virginia led JMU in the fourth quarter in a 36-35 loss, and two other losses, to NC State and Boston College, were each by three points.
One play in each of those games goes the other way, and Virginia is 4-2 right now, as hard as that might be to process.
This, though, was the easy part of the schedule. The second half includes games against four teams currently in the AP Top 25 – North Carolina, Louisville, Duke and Miami – and another, Georgia Tech, that has an upset win over Miami.
Before we look ahead to the tough second half, it’s worth grading out how things went in the first half.
Time to get out the red pen.
QBs: B+
The guy who won the starting job in the final days of training camp, Tony Muskett, was injured in the fourth quarter of the 49-13 Week 1 loss at Tennessee, forcing true freshman Anthony Colandrea into action for the next three games.
The two have basically split the snaps – Colandrea getting 224, Muskett 182.
Each has thrown five TD passes; Muskett has a slight advantage in completion rate (61.5 percent to 61.2 percent).
Colandrea has six INTs, Muskett two.
Muskett has been sacked 13 times, Colandrea nine.
Colandrea has scrambled 12 times for 77 yards; Muskett has scrambled nine times for 50 yards.
Colandrea has gained 53 yards on six designed runs; Muskett has gained 35 yards on six designed runs.
Colandrea is more efficient on short throws – 45-of-53, 422 yards, 8.0 yards/attempt on throws traveling nine yards or less, vs. Muskett’s 31-of-39, 193 yards, 4.9 yards/attempt.
Muskett is better throwing the ball downfield – on throws of 10-plus yards, he is 17-of-31 for 380 yards, 12.3 yards/attempt, to Colandrea’s 18-of-45, 502 yards, 11.2 yards/attempt.
I’m going B+ here because both of these guys were question marks going into the season, and both have established themselves as capable ACC starters.
QB is a position of strength for Virginia.
Wideouts: B
Another position of strength. The lower grade is only because of the lack of depth behind the Big 2, Malik Washington and Malachi Fields.
Washington (44 catches on 61 targets, 668 yards, five TDs) leads the ACC in receptions and receiving yards, and is fourth nationally in receiving yards, and Fields (31 catches on 53 targets, 418 yards, two TDs) is fourth in the ACC in both catches and yards.
The rest of the wideouts, combined, have 25 targets, and 13 catches.
As long as Washington and Fields stay healthy, this isn’t a problem.
O line: F
Dreadful.
OK, Dayton transfer Brian Stevens has a unit-best 77.2 Pro Football Focus grade, and is settled at center after playing the first two games at right guard.
On the other side of the spectrum, there’s Houston transfer Ugonna Nnanna, with a 40.0 PFF grade, the low grade the result of allowing eight sacks, 17 total QB pressures and being assessed for five penalties.
And the guy who started at center the first two weeks, Ty Furnish, who has a 45.2 PFF grade, allowing one sack, 14 total QB pressures, and being called for a unit-high six penalties.
PFF grades Virginia’s overall pass blocking at 46.3, which ranks 125th among the 133 FBS teams, and the run blocking grades out at 55.1, which ranks 101st.
Running backs: C-
This is grading on a curve, because the O line hasn’t been able to give the backs much to work with.
Virginia is averaging 99.5 net rushing yards per game, which ranks 121st nationally, and that number should come with an asterisk, because it was inflated by the 221 net rushing yards in last week’s win over William & Mary, an FCS program.
The run game is less productive than it was last year in the first season under head coach Tony Elliott and offensive coordinator Des Kitchings, who came in preaching the value of establishing the run.
The 123.1 yards per game that Virginia gained on the ground last year was actually a tick less than what the program put up on the ground in 2021 under pass-first OC Robert Anae, so, there’s that.
It’s not for lack of talent. Sixth-year senior Perris Jones ran for a career-high 134 yards last week, but he has just 235 rushing yards on the season – that’s the team-leading total, by the way.
Kobe Pace, a Clemson transfer, went for 83 yards in last week’s win, and is second on the team with 211 net rushing yards, and he has two TD receptions out of the backfield, including a 75-yarder in the Week 2 loss to JMU.
Mike Hollins, the inspirational Nov. 13 shooting survivor, has 70 yards on the ground and two TDs as the short-yardage guy.
Defense: C-
This grade could go up: after giving up 42.3 points and 451.7 yards per game in the opening three weeks, the defense has settled down, allowing just 21.3 points and 308.0 yards per game in the most recent three.
The lack of pressure on opposing QBs is galling – just five sacks and 78 total pressures in six games.
The 13.0 pressures per game is down from the 16.6 pressures per game that the Virginia D put up a year ago.
Gotta get pressure on the QB.
The rushing defense ranks 12th in the ACC and 109th nationally, allowing 177.0 yards per game.
This is not good.
Pass coverage is average: ranking 77th nationally, with a 136.8 efficiency rating for opposing QBs.
That’s probably at least in part a function of the lack of pressure on QBs and the inability to stop opponents from running the ball.
Shoutouts to cornerback Coen King (PFF grade: 79.3, 417 snaps, team-leading six pass breakups), safety Jonas Sanker (PFF grade: 76.7, team-high 421 snaps, team-leading 53 tackles), true freshman linebacker Kam Robinson (PFF grade: 71.4, 205 snaps, 30 tackles) and defensive lineman Aaron Faumui (PFF grade: 68.6, 314 snaps, team-leading 12 QB pressures).
Special teams: D-
A blocked punt touchdown figured into the one-point loss to JMU in Week 2; a kick-return TD reversed the momentum after Virginia had gotten out to a 14-0 lead at Maryland in Week 3.
A penalty on a last-second field-goal try gave NC State a second chance, and ultimately a walkoff, in Week 4.
A 5-yard Daniel Sparks punt set up W&M with the ball in plus territory in a tie game late in the first half last week.
Other than that, the special teams have been … great.
PFF gives UVA’s special teams an overall grade of 65.4, ranking 106th nationally.
The ESPN FPI grades the special teams at 38.6, 109th nationally.
The one bright spot: placekicker Will Bettridge, after missing a chip-shot field goal in the first half in Nashville in Week 1, has made seven straight, three from 40-plus.
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Chris Graham
