The third-and-4 Kobe Pace run play call in the red zone in the first half on Saturday was, at the risk of sounding dramatic, reprehensible.
You’re the metrics guy, but it seems like these are almost always drive-killers when Des Kitchings makes these calls, so why do it?
Sprint Anthony Colandrea out, designed QB run, or just a play-action pass play would seem like better choices.
Eric
The play-calling between the 20s from offensive coordinator Des Kitchings is great, to me.
In the red zone, it’s … not good.
To be fair, it’s tougher for everybody to score in the red zone, because the field is tighter, with the secondary not having to worry about being beaten deep, so the guys on the back end can more easily bracket receivers, and also be more available to help in the run game.
So, it’s tougher for everybody, but it’s particularly tough for our guys right now.
Virginia ranks 103rd among the 134 teams in FBS in red-zone scoring percentage (78.3 percent), and nine of the 18 scores (on 23 red-zone trips) are field goals, which is tied for #1 nationally.
Most field goals in the red zone is not a flex, as you know.
The ‘Hoos are averaging 3.95 points per red-zone possession. I’m not finding any stat database that tracks red-zone scoring by points per possession, but taking a stab at it manually, the team at #1 in the red-zone-scoring-by-possession rankings, Ohio State, averages 6.81 points per red-zone possession.
The team ranked 50th in red-zone scoring by possession, Louisiana-Lafayette, averages 5.50 points.
This week’s opponent, Louisville, which ranks 111th in red-zone scoring by possession, averages 4.65 points.
The team in 134th, dead-last, UTEP, averages 3.09.
You can see where our guys slot in there – among the worst of the worst in both of those metrics.
Red-zone offense was a big problem in the 27-13 loss to Maryland in Week 3, in which the offense bogged down on two red-zone possessions in the first half that led to short field goals, and turned the ball over on a third red-zone trip.
That’s leaving 15 points off the scoreboard in a game that you lose by 14.
And it could have been an issue last week in what ended up being a 24-14 win over Boston College.
Down 14-6 in the third quarter, head coach Tony Elliott decided to go for it on a fourth-and-goal at the 2, and Kitchings, after a timeout, dialed up a dropback pass.
Anthony Colandrea had plenty of time to throw, but the BC pass-rushers kept him in the pocket, and none of the receivers was able to get open, and Colandrea eventually was reduced to having to throw a dart in the direction of Andre Greene Jr. a yard into the end zone that was batted away.
This could have been a turning point in the wrong direction, but the defense got the stop on BC’s next possession, the special teams got a nice punt return, the offense got the ball back into the red zone – leading to another field goal – ahead of a 30-yard TD pass from Colandrea to Malachi Fields, and a 40-yard fumble-recovery TD by Jonas Sanker that put the game away.
What you might notice there: three red-zone scores, all field goals.
In the Maryland game: three red-zone scores, two field goals, and a Colandrea TD, on a 9-yard scramble, on which he crossed into the end zone with one second left before halftime.
Colandrea almost blew one of the field goals in a similar situation in the BC game. With nine seconds left in the half, Colandrea dropped back to pass, tried to escape the pocket to find somebody, then threw the ball away.
The game clock ran down to double zeroes, before replay confirmed that the ball had gone out of bounds with a second on the clock.
Phew, indeed.
What’s confounding with these struggles is that it seems that Kitchings has all the pieces in place to be able to be more efficient in the red zone – a mobile QB in Colandrea, a power back in Pace, a tall wideout in Fields, a plus pass-catching tight end in Tyler Neville.
It’s just a matter of getting everybody on the same page, and getting a rhythm in terms of strategy, game planning in the red zone, and then the play-calling down there.
I can only imagine that Kitchings, Elliott and the other members of the brain trust are putting their heads together to try to figure this out, because red-zone offense has to be a priority.