Mailbag: Should UVA go with Xavier Brown over Kobe Pace at tailback?

Nice win, great to see UVA win, and at least in the end not make it a complete barnburner because of numerous missed opportunities.

I do struggle with a couple of things. I get Andrew Rohde flashback seeing so much of the running load given to Kobe Pace when it seems obvious to me that Xavier Brown is the more talented back, that has the best chance to gain yards and break bigger plays (especially with our usually subpar run blocking). 

I understand Pace is Coach Elliott’s guy from Clemson, but c’mon, man. I get that he had some nice runs late, especially the 20-yarder, but maybe that’s a 30-yard-or-more gain for Brown?

We have a talented, if not still sometime erratic, QB. I say more Brown and AC and less Pace.

Eric

Great points here by Eric. I can confirm, the Kobe Pace vs. Xavier Brown debate was raging in my little area in the fringe of the press box during Saturday’s game.

For a mental visual of the fringe of the press box that they have me in each week, by the way, think: Pinto and Flounder rushing Omega in “Animal House.”

I’m the Pinto in this scenario.

(I hope.)

I’ve digressed.

My take on the Pace vs. Brown debate is, I think the situation at tailback is that Pace is just the better every-down back right now.

The first part of why I feel this way is, Brown, who is listed at 5’9”, and in the 195- to 200-pound range, seems to me to need to put on another 10-15 pounds to be able to withstand the pounding that comes with carrying the ball 15-20 times a game, like Pace (5’10”, 215-220, depending on what time of day it is) is asked to do for this team.

Another factor, and probably the more determinative one, that I’m thinking is at play here is, the relative merits of Pace and Brown in the passing game.

According to Pro Football Focus data, Brown has been on the field for six pass-drop snaps on which he was used as a blocker, and he has been targeted four times as a receiver – once on a screen, for a 4-yard gain, and three times on short passes into the flat, with two catches for 19 yards.

Pace has been on the field for 18 pass-drop snaps on which he was used as a blocker, and he’s been targeted 14 times as a receiver – eight times on screens, with eight catches going for 74 yards, three times on short passes in the flat, with two catches for 11 yards, once in the intermediate area (10-19 yards), an incomplete pass, and once on a pass that went 20+ yards downfield (the double-pass in Saturday’s game that went for a 29-yard gain).

There’s no doubt that Brown is a dynamic runner – he’s averaging 8.2 yards per rushing attempt, the average being a bit skewed by the smaller sample size (38 attempts through five games) and that 75-yard run he ripped off in the win down at Coastal Carolina a couple of weeks back.

Even accounting for that one, he’s at 6.3 yards per tote, and he’s forced 14 missed tackles on his 38 carries, a 36.8 percent rate, which factors into his team-best 223 rushing yards after contact.

Pace’s numbers: 4.9 yards per carry with a long of 43; accounting for that one, 4.3 yards per; 10 missed tackles on 61 attempts, 16.4 percent; 171 rushing yards after contact.

Brown is the better pure runner, which is why he’s a great changeup back when he’s subbed in for Pace.

The issue with going with Brown on more snaps appears to be the relative comfort of offensive coordinator Des Kitchings with him in the passing game.

As it stands now, Brown being on the field seems to presage run – Virginia has run the ball on 41 of the 84 snaps (48.8 percent) with Brown on the field; with Pace on the field, it’s 61 runs on 206 snaps (29.6 percent).

That means, Brown in the game makes it easier for the opposing D coordinator to know what Kitchings is doing, and you don’t want that if you’re an O coordinator.

Brown, until he gets to be a better factor in the passing game, is going to be what we’ve seen, a changeup back who gets 5-10 attempts and 15-20 snaps a game.