AccuWeather reports Hurricane Matthew will continue to spin northward with a swath of flooding, power outages and damaging winds in coastal areas from Florida to Georgia and the Carolinas into this weekend.
Problems related to Matthew could occur as far to the north as southeastern Virginia.
Matthew approached the Florida coast as a Category 4 hurricane Thursday night, before weakening to a Category 3 hurricane near the coast early Friday morning. Matthew will continue to gradually weaken through this weekend, but the hurricane will continue to cause dangerous conditions.
“The path of Matthew will roughly parallel the coastline from northeastern Florida to South Carolina,” according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
It is still possible that a westward wobble by the storm could put the eye partially over land.
Even though the center of the hurricane remains offshore, the effects will be like few have experienced in this stretch of the coastline.
From northeastern Florida through Georgia, the curved shape of the coast, numerous bays and estuaries, as well as the unusual strength and location of the hurricane in these waters will magnify the adverse conditions.
Hurricane Matthew will create a fire hose effect of high winds, heavy rain and storm surge as the eye wall of the hurricane moves northward.
Such a track will put millions in harm’s way along the coast from impacts ranging from storm surge flooding, flash and urban flooding, flying debris and scores of downed trees to structural damage to weakly constructed dwellings.
The worst conditions will occur in northeastern Florida through Friday evening, Georgia during Friday night into Saturday morning and South Carolina during much of the daySaturday. Then, the storm may take an unusual track and head back toward the Bahamas or Florida.
Along the immediate Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida through Georgia and much of South Carolina, gusts will range between 60 and 100 mph as the western part of the outer eye wall moves along.
Winds this strong can cause significant property damage and widespread power outages.
Because of gusts between 40 and 60 mph and bursts of heavy rain, motorists planning to venture along I-95 from northeastern Florida to Georgia and southern South Carolina may want to consider taking a more western route for safety concerns.
Gusts to tropical storm force, roughly 40 mph or greater, can occur as far west as Lake City, Florida, Waycross, Georgia, and Columbia, South Carolina. Gusts at this speed can cause sporadic power outages.
In addition to high winds, a few tornadoes could occur over southeastern South Carolina.
Airline passengers should expect flight cancellations in the southeastern U.S., with the potential for ripple effects elsewhere in the nation as crews and aircraft are displaced.
Powerful onshore winds will push Atlantic Ocean water toward the coast. This water will build up in the bays and along the mouths of the many rivers in the region.
A storm surge of 6-10 feet will occur along low-lying areas of the coast from central Florida to South Carolina. Water levels this high will put some communities and access roads under water, which is why evacuation orders were issued by officials in the region.
The combination of heavy rainfall and storm surge can cause major flooding in areas from St. Augustine and Jacksonville, Florida, to Brunswick and Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina.
Charleston, South Carolina, is especially vulnerable to flooding.
“If Matthew fails to make the anticipated eastward curve along the South Carolina coast, the combination of torrential rain and major storm surge could lead to very serious flooding in Charleston on Saturday,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams.
Rainfall of 6-12 inches will occur along the coast from central Florida northward to North Carolina. Locally higher amounts to 16 inches are possible.
Flooding and power outages possible as far north as Virginia
Even lesser rainfall as far north as northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia can cause flash and urban flooding.
Portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia were walloped with more than a foot of rain during September.
Even a moderate amount of rain, combined with tropical storm-force wind gusts, can topple trees and cause sporadic power outages in this area.
Seas can build to dangerous levels for bathers as far north as the Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey coasts this weekend.
Waters will be too dangerous for bathers, boarders and boaters along the southern Atlantic coast even where as the storm retreats to the north and east.
Small craft should remain secured in port, and cruise and freight interests should consider rerouting their trips to avoid the monstrous seas that will develop. Offshore, seas can top 25 feet at the height of the storm.
Matthew’s path next week is uncertain
The path of Matthew from Sunday and beyond could be chaotic.
How soon an eastward turn begins may determine the severity of the wind and rain in eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Sunday.
“From late this weekend into early next week, Matthew is forecast to curve out to sea, then either stall or loop back toward Florida,” Kottlowski said.
As a result, people along the southeastern U.S. coast will need to continue to monitor the status of Matthew beyond this weekend.
At the very least, such a path would translate to long-duration rough seas, dangerous surf and beach erosion along the southeastern U.S. coast.
Rare, unusually strong hurricane for northeastern Florida, Georgia waters
From a historical perspective, landfall by a hurricane along the northeastern Florida and Georgia coasts is extremely rare.
Since the mid-1800s, when reliable records have been kept, no major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) have ever made landfall along the upper Atlantic coast of Florida,” Kottlowski said.
During the late 1800s, there were fewer than a handful of major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) that have made landfall along the Georgia coast, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell.
The center of Matthew passed very close to Cape Canaveral, Florida, at daybreak, local time. Gusts topping 100 mph occurred along the Space Coast.
By Alex Sosnowski, Senior Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com
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