UVA hosts Old Dominion on Saturday at 2 p.m. (ACC Network) with a lot more on the line than you would have thought when you saw this one on the schedule a few weeks ago.
For starters, ODU’s 20-17 win over Virginia Tech on Sept. 2 raised the stakes for coach Ricky Rahnes’ program, which was picked to finish last in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference in the preseason, behind even JMU, which is making the jump from FCS to FBS this year.
A win at Virginia would give ODU a claim on the unofficial state title, and a leg up in recruiting battles that would come with that paper crown.
On the UVA side, what had looked to be a favorable early-season schedule blew up in the Cavaliers’ faces last week with a listless 24-3 loss at Illinois, which had lost 42-14 at Virginia a year ago.
As coach Tony Elliott said on Tuesday, ODU senses the “blood in the water” around a Virginia team that suddenly looks very vulnerable.
First thing to watch: The problems on the O line
The good news about the UVA offensive line, it seemed, last week, was that senior Jonathan Leech was going to be available for Illinois, and it turns out, Leech would get on the field for 43 of the Cavaliers’ 67 offensive snaps.
The bad news: Leech graded out at an awful 36.0, from the rendering by Pro Football Focus.
Leech came in for the struggling true freshman left tackle McKale Boley (24 snaps, 49.4 PFF grade), allowing Logan Taylor (67 snaps, 55.5 PFF grade) to shift from right tackle over to the left side.
Tackles protect the edge, at least they’re supposed to.
Brennan Armstrong was under fire from the edges – Taylor and Leech each allowed six pressures, and a total of three sacks, and Boley allowed 14 pressures before going to the bench.
There was also plenty of pressure up the middle.
Center Ty Furnish (57 snaps, 34.3 PFF grade) allowed seven pressures, and Jestus Johnson (10 snaps, 68.8 PFF grade) allowed one.
All told, Armstrong was getting it from all sides, up the middle.
The guards – John Paul Flores (67 snaps, 61.5 PFF grade, one pressure allowed) and Derek Devine (67 snaps, 56.7 PFF grade, three pressures allowed) – were something of anchors for the unit.
The next test: an ODU front that recorded 14 pressures in the Monarchs’ 20-17 upset of Virginia Tech in Week 1.
The guy to watch for on the ODU front is junior defensive end Deeve Harris, who had five pressures in the win over the Hokies, and had 28 pressures, including three sacks, on 235 pass-rush snaps for the Monarchs a year ago.
ODU did get gashed on the ground in its 39-21 loss to East Carolina last week, allowing 261 yards rushing to the Pirates, with tailback Keaton Mitchell going for 160 yards and two TDs.
UVA gained just 42 net yards rushing last week in the 24-3 loss to Illinois, after going for 259 yards a week earlier in a 34-17 win over Richmond.
Second thing to watch: The leaky UVA pass game
One thing that stood out among the many issues with the UVA offense in the 24-3 loss at Illinois last week was how bad the vaunted wide-receiver corps was that day.
The offensive line had trouble keeping Brennan Armstrong upright, sure, and, definitely, Armstrong let the echoes of the many Illini footsteps in the offensive backfield affect his rhythm, but he also got almost no help from his wideouts, who seemed unable on most pass snaps to get even a sliver of daylight.
Elliott was a wide receiver at Clemson and coached wideouts on his way up in the business.
He had to be as shocked as anybody else at what he saw from his guys last week.
The biggest thing he saw from his review of the game film: “when the bullets started flying, the guys abandoned their technique, and they just tried to survive.”
“To be successful is when the bullets start flying, the one thing you trust is your technique, and so man coverage, defeating man coverage, is all about technique and applying your technique,” Elliott said. “The worst thing you can do as a receiver versus man coverage is just run, because you do the job for the defender. You have to use what tools you have. As a receiver, your feet and your hands are your tools to defeat man coverage. As you attack soft coverage, you’ve got to freeze the defender with your feet to create some hesitation and let your hands react to his reaction so you can create separation or move a guy or get to where you want to go.
“We’ve got a lot of work to do there, and the guys have received the message, and they’re owning it, and they’re going to work at it,” Elliott said.
Pro Football Focus had Dontayvion Wicks, who had 1,203 yards on 57 catches a year ago, getting 13 targets on Saturday, and only catching two balls, for 23 yards, and an NFL passer rating on those targets of 39.6.
And that actually wasn’t the lowest rating among the receiver group. Lavel Davis Jr., a freshman All-America in 2020 who missed last season with an ACL injury, had two catches on eight targets for 67 yards and an NFL passer rating on those throws of 22.4.
The reason for the lower rating is that two of the targets to Davis resulted in the Armstrong INTs.
Keytaon Thompson, Mr. Old Reliable, had the only good day among those in the wideout corps, catching five balls on six targets for 62 yards and a 109.7 passer rating on those throws.
Billy Kemp IV, who 74 catches last season, was on the field for 25 pass snaps, and didn’t get a single target.
With a veteran fifth-year QB and veterans at wide receiver, you wouldn’t have expected these kinds of rookie mistakes to persist the way they did last week, but to be fair, UVA is running a different offensive scheme this year under first-year offensive coordinator Des Kitchings than what these guys had played in for years under Robert Anae, now the offensive coordinator at Syracuse.
“What I told them, I said, look, fellas, what I’ve done in my past doesn’t matter because all we’ve got is today. What y’all did offensively last year doesn’t matter. I said, look at the defense. What the defense did last year, they’re not thinking about it. They’re not focusing about it. They’re not paying attention to what’s in the rear-view mirror,” Elliott said.
Third thing to watch: The blood in the water
ODU’s over Virginia Tech was as much about turnovers – the Hokies had five, four on INTs by Marshall transfer QB Grant Wells, the other a bungled snap on a field-goal try that led to an ODU touchdown – as anything else.
Credit to the Monarchs, though, for holding Virginia Tech to 333 yards of total offense, though in last week’s 39-21 loss at ECU, the Pirates were able to put up 531 total yards, including 261 yards on the ground.
The effort against the Hokies has Elliott’s attention, especially after Virginia struggled on offense in its 24-3 loss at Illinois in Week 2, in which the ‘Hoos gained just 222 yards.
Elliott expects ODU coach Ricky Rahne and his staff to look at the film from the Illinois game for ideas on how to create problems for the Virginia offense.
“There’s no doubt that they’re probably going to bring some five-man fronts, which you haven’t seen a bunch on film. They’re primarily a four-down. They will walk their weak side in around, but it’s not a true odd structure to try and create some confusion. But I would imagine it’s not hard for them to take one of the linebackers and walk them down on the line and create a five-man front to see if we fixed the technical issues that we had from a one-on-one standpoint,” Elliott said.
On offense, ODU has 6’5” redshirt sophomore Hayden Wolff at QB. Wolff passed for 275 yards and three TDs last week in the loss at East Carolina.
Last season, Wolff threw for 1,933 yards, 10 TDs and seven INTs for an ODU team that stormed back from a 1-6 start to win its final five games and earn an invite to the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Vegas has Virginia pegged as an 8.5-point favorite. The line started on Monday at 10 points, so the money coming in is favoring ODU to get it to move down.
Elliott is trying to impress on his players the challenge ahead of them on Saturday.
“We’ve got to do a great job on both sides of the ball, and it’s going to be a good challenge for us,” Elliott said. “I’m excited for us, especially offensively, because we’ve got a structure that’s going to challenge us, and athletically they’re capable, and they’re going to come in here confident. They have no reason not to be. They’re going to come in here and sense that there’s blood in the water, and they’re going to come after us. We’ve got to have our minds in the right place and show up Saturday ready to go.”
Fourth thing to watch: Does anybody show up to watch?
The announced attendance for UVA’s Sept. 3 season opener with Richmond was 41,122, but overheard in the press box was that the actual number of people that went through the turnstiles was around 27,000.
The turnout this weekend for ODU, after the ‘Hoos seemed disinterested in responding to the punches in the mouth and kicks to the rear end from by Illinois in a 24-3 loss on the road in Week 2, is likely to be closer to the 27,000 that went through the turnstiles two weeks ago than it is even the 41,122, which, incidentally, could have fit into the stadium before the expansion.
For Elliott, who came from Clemson, which routinely draws 80,000+ on Saturdays, the lack of interest and support for Virginia Football has to be disconcerting.
“We’re building a program, and I know there’s a lot of people that are waiting to see what we’re all about, but also, too, I know that we’re all – everybody is important, everybody’s role is critical,” Elliott said this week in his Tuesday presser, addressing the fan atmosphere, or lack thereof.
“These young men, they love energy. They love excitement. They’re modern-day gladiators, so to speak, and they love the roar of the crowd. It creates a feeling that’s hard to describe unless you’ve been down on the grass in the arena, so to speak,” Elliott said.
To be fair to the fans, the gameday environment at Scott Stadium is among the worst in the Power 5. Virginia Athletics put out a press release ahead of the opener touting numerous supposed gameday improvements, highlighting effort to boost Wi-Fi capacity and concessions, among the many things, but even with a relatively small turnout, the Wi-Fi was inaccessible even in parts of the press box, and staffing issues in concessions led to interminably long lines throughout the day.
Couple that with going on 15 years of mediocrity – UVA’s record since the 2008 season is 71-100, with just three winning records in the last 14 seasons-plus, mediocrity may be overstating it – and you have to wonder why the people who do come still come.
To Elliott, it’s a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg dilemma.
“I want to see the stadium full, because I know, and these players know, that when Scott is rocking, it can be a heck of a place to play for us, but then also a hard place for other people to come play,” Elliott said. “But I think we’ve all got to understand that every role is critical, and that’s why I challenge the fans, and you know what, I understand that everybody has an opinion, everybody has their likes and dislikes, but man, we’re in this thing together, and we need the fans there.
“We need, because there’s going to be – you’re dealing with 18- to 22-year-olds. They need every encouragement that they can get to continue because football is hard, man, football is hard, it’s a hard sport. There’s a lot that goes into it. A lot of the motivation is, man, you want to perform, you want to perform well for the crowd, and you look forward to that.
“That’s why I said what I said after the game last week. Not a knock on anything, but hey, I know what we’ve got to do. We’ve got to earn those seats. But also, too, there’s also some responsibility on that side, too, man, to show up and create an atmosphere for these guys so that they can play well for you.”
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Chris Graham
