A number of challenges, including tariff-induced trade wars, are creating uncertainty for farmers throughout the nation.
Ongoing avian influenza outbreaks, contraction in the cattle industry, higher interest rates, inflation-driven input costs and trade disputes are all causing fluctuations in the market, according to experts at a recent American Farm Bureau Federation convention held in San Antonio.
More than 5,000 farmers and ranchers, including members of Virginia Farm Bureau, were in attendance.
Tariff-induced trade wars
Bernt Nelson, an AFBF economist, said that consumers are still willing to pay a premium price for beef, but the potential for tariff-induced trade wars are sowing uncertainty, and even small changes in demand could have a big impact on prices.
“So how long can our demand sustain record beef prices — can it?” he said. “This will dictate how well this market holds together, even with our tighter cattle supplies this year.”
AFB president Zippy Duvall has expressed alarm about potential harm to farmers due to tariffs with Canada and Mexico and likely retaliatory measures.
“Farm and ranch families answer the call to feed America’s families and the world, and these tariffs and the promised retaliation will put further stress on their livelihoods,” Duvall said.
President Donald Trump’s executive order called for duties of 25 percent from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10 percent on all imports from China. Trump imposed the tariff on China earlier this month but temporarily paused the tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The pause is scheduled to expire March 5.
“Unfortunately, we know from experience that farmers and rural communities will bear the brunt of retaliation,” Duvall said. “Harmful effects of retaliation to farmers ripple through the rest of the rural economy.”
“More than 20 percent of U.S. farm income comes from exports, which are dominated by these three markets. Just last year the U.S. exported over $30 billion in agricultural products to Mexico, $29 billion to Canada and $26 billion to China – our top three markets and nearly half of all exports by value combined.
“The uncertainty hits just as operating loans are being secured and spring planting approaches, leaving farmers in a tough spot.”
USDA funding freezes
Farmers have also reported that a federal funding freeze has paused reimbursement programs through the U.S. Department of Agriculture, or USDA.
Farmers sign contracts and pay up front for costs with a guarantee that grants and loans will help them cover some of their costs.
A federal judge blocked the freeze, but many farmers are still having problems accessing grants and funds, according to multiple news reports.
A letter was sent to the USDA calling its actions “reckless.”
“The people impacted by this funding freeze are hardworking, rural Americans and small businesses. These grant recipients operate on thin margins and were relying on these funds to continue critical research, operate their business, and support farmers.
“Pulling the rug out from these recipients runs counter to the mission of the USDA and will quickly and significantly cripple economic development in rural America, with a ripple effect that hurts businesses and jobs that indirectly benefit from federal investment.
“Reneging on USDA’s funding commitments and arbitrarily stopping grant funding without consideration of the impacts to the hardworking American citizens is reckless,” the letter said.
AFP reached out to the Headwaters Soil and Water Conservation District to learn more about the grants and the impact on local farmers, but we did not get a response.
USAID closure to impact farmers
The U.S. International Agency for Development, or USAID, provided food for international aid and purchased much of its supply from U.S. farmers.
On Jan. 20, Trump issued an executive order pausing assistance in foreign countries and recalled USAID employees serving abroad, many who eventually received furlough or termination notices.
USAID food programs that feed people abroad have been a customer of U.S. farmers for decades.
In Virginia, 11 large-scale Virginia farmers fulfilled direct orders for humanitarian food assistance.
With the pause and likely closure of USAID under Trump, farmers will likely face yet another challenge with a reduction in sales.
Some farmers express regret in voting for Trump
Some farmers have expressed regret in voting for Trump, including Ben Palen, a Kansas native and fifth-generation farmer, in an opinion piece in the Kansas Reflector.
“We are now living and working in an environment where the only constant is chaos. Chaos produces uncertainty, and that leads to loss of trust.
“The buyers of U.S. farm products are not going to deal with nations that cannot be trusted. There are plenty of options in today’s world for those buyers to bypass the United States. Why on God’s green earth would they put up with the insanity that we have in Washington now?
“It is almost laughable that some Republicans have come to the defense of Trump’s proposed tariffs, and that some of those same Republicans have promised to help the farmers who feel the impact.
“Don’t bet the farm on help coming your way from this administration. Remember the old saying: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
“My fellow farmers — you’ve been played.”
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Crystal Graham
