It’s Election Day, and for political nerds like me, it’s better than Super Bowl Sunday.
I’ve been doing this for a while – would you believe, grade school?
The first presidential election that I remember was the 1980 race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
Over the four decades since, I’ve developed an approach to intake and analysis of the flurry of numbers that fly around on Election Night, and for the first time, here today, I’m sharing how I do it, in case it helps you make sense of things.
Checklist
- Make sure to have plenty of snacks and caffeine handy.
- Wouldn’t hurt to have adult beverages nearby to calm the nerves.
- Get up and walk around every so often.
- If you have good luck charms, there’s the old saying in football, about how it’s better to be lucky than good.
First wave: 7 p.m.
The polls in Virginia close at 7 p.m. ET, and we should start getting the first returns here in the Commonwealth in the 7:30-7:45 p.m. ET quarter-hour.
The news networks will begin making calls for the obvious D and obvious R states during that 7 p.m. ET hour, but nothing from the low-hanging fruit will be a big deal.
The first national numbers of consequence to roll in will come from Georgia, where the polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and North Carolina, where the polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The most recent nonpartisan polls have North Carolina anywhere from a toss-up to Harris +4, and have Georgia anywhere from Trump +1 to Harris +3.
Neither of these will be over for a while tonight, but it’s safe to say, a Harris win in either is huge, because Trump needs both to get to 270.
Worth watching
- Ohio, where polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, is solid Trump (Trump +3, as an outlier, to Trump +11), but the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno is a toss-up, between Brown +2 and Moreno +4 among the nonpartisans.
What I’ll be paying close attention to in the 7 p.m. ET hour is the early numbers coming out of the Republican areas in Virginia – here in our home base, in the Shenandoah Valley, down in the Roanoke Valley and Southwest Virginia, up and down the Route 29 and Route 15 corridors in the Fifth District.
Those areas are still going to be strong R, but how strong, and the turnout, relative to 2020, will be what I’ll be looking for.
Here in our home base, for instance, Augusta County, the turnout in 2020 was past the 80 percent mark, over 40,000 raw votes, and Donald Trump won with just over 72 percent of the vote.
The story of this election is how independent and Republican women will cast their lots post-Dobbs.
What I’ll be looking for: is the turnout in Augusta County comparable to 2020? Does he get to 72 percent or more? Or is his tally more in the mid-60s, with women who voted for him in 2016 and 2020 peeling off?
I’ll be following this trend across our wide red part of the state, which tends to get its numbers in first.
That’s my friendly reminder to those tuning in tonight and seeing Trump with a working lead in Virginia in the 8 p.m. ET and 9 p.m. ET hours, that’s how it usually goes.
The Democrat-rich vote areas in Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads come in later with their vote totals.
Kamala Harris should win the state by between six and eight points, and Tim Kaine should win re-election to the U.S. Senate by 10 to 12 points.
It might take a while to get there, just because of the way the numbers roll in.
Second wave: 8 p.m. ET
Next, then, we have Pennsylvania, where the polls close at 8 p.m. ET, though we’re not going to get a result until, at the earliest, the wee hours of the morning.
The middle-of-the-road pollsters have Pennsylvania anywhere from Trump +1 to Harris +4.
The Pennsylvania Senate race is also key, with Democrat Bob Casey leading Republican Dave McCormick between Casey +5 and Casey +9.
Worth watching
- Maryland’s polls close at 8 p.m., meaning we can start keeping tabs on the Senate race between former governor Larry Hogan and Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks. Alsobrooks has a lead ranging from Alsobrooks +9 to Alsobrooks +24. Alsobrooks would be the first African American senator in Maryland history with the win.
My wildcard in the 8 p.m. ET wave: Florida, where the polls close at 7 p.m. ET. east of the panhandle, though the localities in the Central Time Zone close at 8 p.m.
I’m only interested here because the last few polls from the Republican pollsters have the race between Trump +4 and Trump +7, and my working theory is that the polls have been off three to four points in Trump’s favor this cycle, and Florida can help me test that.
It would take a political tsunami for Harris to win here, but if she can keep it interesting with a strong showing in Miami-Dade, that would be worth our time keeping tabs.
The Florida Senate race between Republican incumbent Rick Scott and Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is closer – ranging from Scott +4 to Scott +8.
Third wave: 9 p.m. ET
Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona enter the chat at 9 p.m. ET with their polls closing.
Michigan and Wisconsin are going to be well into the overnight before we know what’s going on, so, pace yourself.
Arizona may play out into the daylight hours on Wednesday until we get a call.
The nonpartisan polling in Michigan has the state trending toward Harris, anywhere from Harris +2 to Harris +7.
Wisconsin goes from even to Harris +5 in the nonpartisan polls, and even Trafalgar has the state at Harris +1.
Arizona ranges from Trump +5 to Harris +2 in the nonpartisan polls.
Each have contested Senate races, with small leads in the polls heading into Election Day for Democrats Elissa Slotkin (Pennsylvania), Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin) and Ruben Gallego (Arizona).
Worth watching
- Iowa, where the Iowa Poll gave us the shock Harris +3 result over the weekend. A Harris win here is a death-knell for Trump’s chances.
- Kansas, where a Fort Hays poll had that state, Trump +14 in 2020, at just Trump +5 in 2024.
- Texas, which is ranging from Trump +7 to Trump +11, but has an interesting Senate race between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred that is currently ranging between Cruz +2 to Cruz +4.
From our perspective here in Virginia, we should get calls from the networks on our presidential and Senate races in the 9 p.m. ET hour, toward the 9:45-10 p.m. quarter-hour.
Fourth wave: 10 p.m. ET
Nevada is the draw here.
Again, it will be a while before we know anything here, where the nonpartisan polls have the race between toss-up and Harris +4.
Fifth and final wave: 11 p.m. ET
This is the Left Coast – California, Washington and Oregon – and Idaho.
The networks will make their projections in each as close to 11 p.m. ET as possible.
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Chris Graham
