Election ’08: Obama, Warner get nod in final pre-election polls

Story by Chris Graham
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Gallup and Larry Sabato are calling it a Barack Obama landslide, and a summary of the other major national polls has the Democrat on the verge of making history.

Gallup’s final pre-election estimate has Obama winning 55 percent of the vote to Republican John McCain’s 44 percent. Sabato, the University of Virginia political-science professor known for his Crystal Ball predictions, is giving Obama 364 votes in the all-important Electoral College to McCain’s 174.

Rasmussen Reports, which conducts polling for the conservative Fox News, has Obama winning by a 52 percent-to-46 percent margin, consistent with its polling over the past month. The Reuters-C-SPAN-Zogby poll has the gap at seven points, with Obama at 51 percent and McCain at 44 percent, and CNN/Opinion Research also has it at seven points, 53 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain.

The poll of polls has Obama anywhere from 51 percent to 55 percent and McCain in the 41 percent-to-46 percent range.

In Virginia, the margin for Obama is between three points in the final pre-election Mason-Dixon poll (47 percent for Obama, 44 percent for McCain) and six points in the final pre-election Zogby poll (51 percent for Obama, 45 percent for McCain). The final Survey USA poll had the gap at four points, with Obama at 50 percent and McCain at 46 percent.

Democrat Mark Warner appears to be cruising toward a victory in his U.S. Senate race with Republican Jim Gilmore. Survey USA has the Warner lead at 59 percent to 35 percent for Gilmore. The most recent polls from the Washington Post and Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling all had the Warner lead in the 25- to 30-point range.

I have not come across any new polling done in the Tom Perriello-Virgil Goode race in the Fifth Congressional District or the Sam Rasoul-Bob Goodlatte race in the Sixth Congressional District.