I’ve been making the case, based on the eye test, and some, admittedly superficial, numbers-crunching, that freshman Ryan Dunn will eventually supplant fifth-year senior Jayden Gardner in sixth-ranked Virginia’s starting lineup.
Now consulting the website EvanMiya.com, which provides opportunities for deep dives into lineup efficiency, oh, yeah, it’s clear, this needs to happen.
At first glance, yes, I’m crazy
Counting numbers-wise, no, it makes no sense, at first glance, to go with Dunn over Gardner, and I readily concede as much.
Gardner was the leading scorer (15.3 points per game) and leading rebounder (6.4 rebounds per game) for Virginia a year ago, and while his numbers have taken a step back this season – 10.1 points per game, 4.7 rebounds per game – he’s actually a tick more efficient offensively (shooting 51.4 percent, up from 50.1 percent last year), and he’s doing what he’s doing in less floor time (32.7 minutes per game last season, 23.4 minutes per game this season).
Meanwhile, Dunn, his numbers are, to put it mildly, modest at best – 2.8 points and 2.9 rebounds per game, 48.6 percent shooting, 30.8 percent from three.
Recently, though …
Of late, Dunn has been getting more minutes than Gardner, and the counting-numbers part of this story takes a turn.
Over the past three UVA games, Dunn has averaged 23.7 minutes per game, and he’s averaging 5.7 points and 5.0 rebounds per game over that stretch.
Dunn’s cumulative plus/minus over those three: +22.
(For reference, Virginia has won its last three by a combined +28.)
Gardner has averaged 20.7 minutes per game over the past three, and is averaging 6.7 points and 3.0 boards over those three.
His cumulative plus/minus over the past three: -7.
The deep dive
According to EvanMiya, Virginia’s best five-man lineup is Reece Beekman-Kihei Clark-Armaan Franklin-Ryan Dunn-Ben Vander Plas.
That lineup scores 1.399 points per possession on offense, and allows 0.775 points per possession on defense.
This lineup, incidentally, is the best five-man lineup in the ACC, according to EvanMiya, and ranks 15th nationally.
The second-best lineup is the Beekman, Franklin and freshman Isaac McKneely in the backcourt around BVP and Dunn in the post.
That group scores 1.312 PPP, and gives up 0.683 PPP.
The four-guard lineup with Beeks, Clark, Franklin and iMac around Vander Plas is next-best, scoring 1.321 PPP and allowing 0.821 PPP.
It’s a big step down, then, to the fourth-best lineup – Clark, Franklin, McKneely in the backcourt, Kadin Shedrick and BVP in the frontcourt.
That one scores 1.239 PPP, and allows 0.850.
The starting lineup that Tony Bennett went with for the better part of the season – Beekman, Clark, Franklin, Gardner, Shedrick – ranks fifth, scoring 1.302 PPP, allowing 0.952 PPP.
The eye test part of this
Why Dunn is a better fit is because he’s a better, more versatile defender than Gardner, a better rebounder, and on offense, he doesn’t need the ball to be effective.
Bigs in Bennett’s system are there, first and foremost, to set screens, then work off those screens, either cutting to the rim or popping out for jumpers.
Gardner’s shooting range is basically out to 15 feet, meaning he needs to work in and around the lane, which can clogs thing up for the guards.
If he’s on the three-point line, his defender can cheat off him into the lane, which also clogs up cuts and the potential for dribble-drives.
Dunn can hit the three, and as a result, defenders have to respect him on the perimeter.
He’s also got a decent enough handle to be a threat as a dribble-driver.
The offense flows better with him on the floor because of his offensive versatility.
The defense is better with him on the floor because of his athleticism and his work to quickly pick up the nuances of Bennett’s Packline.
The numbers bear all of that out.
Share
Chris Graham
