College Basketball: These are the nine teams that fit the profile of a national champion

The average national champ in the 20 years of the KenPom ranked 9.5 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 17.6 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Of those 20 champs, 15 ranked in the top 30 on both ends of the floor.

Among the other five, three ranked in the top five in offense – the 2007 UNC champs were first in offense, 37th in defense; the 2015 Duke champs were third in offense, 37th in defense; the 2021 Baylor champs were third in offense, 44th in defense.

The other two: the 2003 Syracuse champs were 18th in offense, 31st in defense, and the 2014 UConn champs were 57th in offense and 12th in defense.

You might be able to see the pattern that I see.

The teams that you can, with some confidence, look at as national title contenders are the ones who rank in the top 30 on both ends, and then teams that are really good on one end, at least decent on the other.

Even the outlier, that 2014 UConn team, was among the best in the nation that year on defense.

All of that as context, we’re getting close to Feb. 1, with Selection Sunday seven Sundays away.

I think we have enough in terms of bodies of work to be able to come up with a working list of the teams that we can call legit national title contenders.

Note: I’m giving preference in the rankings below to teams that are more highly-ranked on offense, given the historical trend.

The top tier: Top 30 on both ends

1. Houston (19-2): eight in offense, fourth in defense
2. Purdue (19-1): fifth in offense, 16th in defense
3. Alabama (18-2): 16th in offense, fifth in defense
4. UConn (16-6): 11th in offense, 14th in defense
5. UCLA (17-3): 22nd in offense, third in defense
6. Texas (17-3): 13th in offense, 27th in defense
7. Virginia (15-3): 18th in offense, 24th in defense
8. Creighton (12-8): 23rd in offense, 21st in defense
9. Kansas (16-4): 25th in offense, 18th in defense

Next tier: Great on one end, good enough on the other

1. Marquette (16-5): first on offense, 65th on defense
2. Arizona (17-3): 12th on offense, 42nd on defense
3. Tennessee (17-3): 40th on offense, first on defense
4. Saint Mary’s (18-4): 34th on offense, sixth on defense
5. TCU (16-4): 53rd on offense, 10th on defense
6. Iowa State (15-4): 59th on offense, ninth on defense

Tier 3: Good offensive teams that could make a move

1. Baylor (15-5): second on offense, 90th on defense
2. Gonzaga (17-4): third on offense, 87th on defense
3. Xavier (17-4): fourth on offense, 93rd on defense
4. Ohio State (11-9): ninth on offense, 77th on defense
5. Miami (16-4): 10th on offense, 116th on defense
6. Kentucky (14-6): 19th on offense, 57th on defense

Final group: Not great, but pretty good, on both ends

1. Providence (16-5): 20th on offense, 60th on defense
2. North Carolina (15-6): 24th on offense, 51st on defense
3. West Virginia (12-8): 26th on offense, 34th on defense
4. Indiana (14-6): 27th on offense, 36th on defense
5. Kansas State (17-3): 30th on offense, 40th on defense
6. San Diego State (16-4): 33rd on offense, 32nd on defense
7. Duke (14-6): 35th on offense, 41st on defense
8. New Mexico (18-3): 36th on offense, 59th on defense
9. Memphis (15-5): 43rd on offense, 38th on defense