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Breaking down the 2017 ACC Tournament: Favorites, paths, upset possibilities

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acc tournament 2017The 2017 ACC Tournament marks the first-ever foray for the storied conference into the New York City market.

The product seems more than ready for the bright lights of the Big Apple, with as many as 12 of the 15 teams looking to build or pad their NCAA Tournament resumes, and at least two or three at the top of the ladder bringing Final Four credentials with them.

A look at the favorites, the paths for the 15 teams, and upset possibilities.

 

Best positioned among the double-byes

Top seed North Carolina (26-6, 14-4 ACC) gets either #8 Miami (20-10, 10-8 ACC) or #9 Syracuse (18-13, 10-8 ACC) on Thursday at noon. The Heels lost by 15 at Miami on Jan. 28, and beat Syracuse by 17 at home on Jan. 16.

Second seed Florida State (24-7, 12-6 ACC) gets #7 Virginia Tech (21-9, 10-8 ACC), #10 Wake Forest (18-12, 9-9 ACC) or #15 Boston College (9-22, 2-16 ACC). The ‘Noles beat Tech at home by 15 on Jan. 7, beat Wake by 16 at home on Dec. 28, and beat BC by 32 at home on Feb. 20.

Three seed Notre Dame (23-8, 12-6 ACC) gets #6 Virginia (21-9, 11-7 ACC), #11 Georgia Tech (17-14, 8-10 ACC) or #14 Pitt (15-16, 4-14 ACC). The Irish lost to Virginia at home by 17 on Jan. 24, split with Georgia Tech (losing by two in Atlanta, winning by four at home) and beat Pitt by one in OT in December. Yikes.

Four seed Louisville (24-7, 12-6 ACC) gets either #5 Duke (23-8, 11-7 ACC), #12 Clemson (16-14, 6-12 ACC) or #13 N.C. State (15-16, 4-14 ACC). Louisville beat Duke at home by nine on Jan. 14, beat Clemson by 32 at home on Jan. 19 and beat State by 25 at home on Jan. 29.

Notre Dame appears to have the toughest path to the final, and Louisville and Florida State have the clearest paths.

 

Best positioned from Day 2 byes

Five seed Duke lost to N.C. State at home on Jan. 23 and beat Clemson by two at home on Feb. 11. Assuming the Blue Devils advance, they get Louisville, which beat them in the Yum! Center, then likely a rubber match with UNC in the semifinals.

Six seed Virginia beat Georgia Tech at home by 13 in January in a game that felt closer, and split with Pitt, winning by 25 this past weekend. Assuming a win, the Cavs get Notre Dame, who they beat on the road, and then most likely Florida State, which beat UVA on a buzzer-beater in JPJ.

Virginia Tech gets Wake, which just beat the Hokies in Blacksburg, or Boston College, a team Tech swept in a home-and-home. A win on Wednesday, and VT gets Florida State, which won by 15 in Tallahassee.

The Miami-Syracuse 8-9 game is the only one on Wednesday pitting two teams with a Round 1 bye. Miami dominated UNC in South Florida, and an upset there could lead to a match with Duke, which split two with the Hurricanes, or Louisville, which beat Miami by five at home.

Syracuse lost by 17 at UNC. The Orange did beat Duke on a buzzer-beater in the Carrier Dome, and was swept by Louisville, losing at home in OT.

Virginia, from the Day 2 group, may be best positioned to sneak into Saturday night.

 

Upsets from the Day 1 pool?

Wake Forest just beat Virginia Tech on the road. Win that one, and the Demon Deacons get FSU, which won by 16 at home way back in December. Next up would be Notre Dame, which beat Wake by seven in South Bend, or Virginia, which won by 17 in Charlottesville.

Georgia Tech would get Virginia, which won by double digits in Charlottesville, then with that upset would get Notre Dame, who they played tough in a season split. Win that one, and you’re looking at FSU, which the Jackets beat by 22 in Atlanta, or Virginia Tech, who won by just one in Blacksburg. Interesting.

N.C. State beat Duke in Cameron, but that seems like a million years ago.

Pitt split with UVA, lost by one at home to Notre Dame, and beat Florida State by 14 at home.

Boston College … is Boston College.

You can tell by the space devoted that I like Georgia Tech the best out of this group. Pitt has a nice bracket, considering.

Column by Chris Graham






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