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ACC Tournament Bracketology: Breaking down UVA Basketball’s chances to get to Charlotte

Scott German
uva basketball
Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

It used to be that late January signaled the start of looking at the remainder of the UVA Basketball conference schedule to determine the magic number of wins the Cavaliers needed to secure the coveted double-bye in the ACC Tournament.

It’s late January, and looking for enough wins to gain the double-bye isn’t happening.

But we can still have fun with numbers, and this year, late January takes on a different twist in looking for wins: avoiding being left out of the conference tournament altogether.

Only 15 schools will participate in this year’s ACC Tourney in Charlotte, meaning the bottom three teams in the regular season will stay home.

Virginia’s quest to avoid being home for the ACC Tournament started Tuesday night in John Paul Jones Arena, where the Cavaliers led wire-to-wire in a 74-56 win over stumbling Boston College.


ICYMI


uva basketball isaac mckneely
UVA Basketball guard Isaac McKneely. Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

The Eagles (9-10, 1-7 ACC) lost their fifth straight and have not won on the road in ACC play this season.

So, Virginia did what they had to do: win at home and hold serve.

Virginia snapped a five-game losing skid and is 9-10 and 2-6 in ACC play.

Now, the fun with numbers begins.

The “unofficial” cutline to qualify for the tournament appears to be around six, possibly seven wins.

Winning six or seven should place Virginia safely in the 15th and final spot in the conference standings.

At 2-6, Virginia has 12 remaining games, six home and six away.

Virginia needs at least a 5-7 finish in league play to get to seven.

Here’s how, despite the 2-6 start, that appears within reach.

Three of the remaining six home games are against teams below .500 in conference action.

Notre Dame (2-5) and Georgia Tech (2-6) are struggling, while Virginia Tech (3-4) should be winnable in the friendly confines of JPJ.

Florida State (4-3) has played much better after a tough start, but it is certainly a winnable game at home.

If Virginia completes that four-game sweep, the remaining two home games against Duke (8-0) and Clemson (7-1) don’t become must-win games.

That gets UVA to four.

Then, the road games.

Virginia travels to Miami (0-7) to play a dreadful Hurricane team. A loss in South Beach would negate any positives the Cavaliers achieve at home.


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UVA Basketball Andrew Rohde
UVA Basketball guard Andrew Rohde. Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

Trips to Syracuse (3-4) and a rematch with Virginia Tech aren’t that intimidating.

It will be tough to find even one win in visits to struggling Pitt (3-4), and losers of four straight, Wake Forest (7-1) and North Carolina (5-3), but one upset out of the three contests is possible.

So, what do I see in the crystal ball for Virginia?

Finishing 4-2 at home and 2-4 on the road.

Virginia is now 8-12 in the ACC and in a good position to play on Tuesday in the opening round of the ACC Tournament.

That’s how I see this playing out.

And it started with the win over BC on Tuesday.

One game at a time.

Scott German

Scott German

Scott German covers UVA Athletics for AFP, and is the co-host of “Street Knowledge” podcasts focusing on UVA Athletics with AFP editor Chris Graham. Scott has been around the ‘Hoos his whole life. As a reporter, he was on site for UVA basketball’s Final Fours, in 1981 and 1984, and has covered UVA football in bowl games dating back to its first, the 1984 Peach Bowl.