Wake Forest was on our Should Be In line on Monday, but we have to give serious consideration to dropping the Deacs back to Work to Do after that disastrous loss to Clemson on Wednesday.

Virginia, meanwhile, looked good in its loss to Duke at JPJ, but a loss is a loss is a loss is a loss.

Brooklyn is getting more interesting by the day.

Locks

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Duke

Record: 24-4 (14-3 ACC)
SOS/OOC: 71/100

Quad 1: 5-1
Quad 2: 5-2
Quad 3: 7-1
Quad 4: 7-0

Road: 7-2
Neutral: 2-0

Avg. NET win: 132
Avg. NET loss: 67

BPI: 10
NET: 12
Sagarin: 8
KPI: 14
SOR: 10
KenPom: 9
Avg: 10.5

Prognosis: Still in the hunt for a #1 seed. Would have to win out and cut down the nets in Brooklyn to get there.

 

Should Be In

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Notre Dame

Record: 20-8 (13-4 ACC)
SOS/OOC: 59/31

Quad 1: 2-8
Quad 2: 3-1
Quad 3: 10-1
Quad 4: 4-0

Note: 1 Non-D1 win (Chaminade)

Road: 7-4
Neutral: 3-0

Avg. NET win: 150
Avg. NET loss: 49

BPI: 53
NET: 55
Sagarin: 53
KPI: 52
SOR: 30
KenPom: 58
Avg.: 50.2

Prognosis: Can withstand a hiccup, but just one.

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North Carolina

Record: 20-8 (12-5 ACC)
SOS/OOC: 58/33

Quad 1: 1-7
Quad 2: 4-0
Quad 3: 10-0
Quad 4: 5-1

Road: 6-3
Neutral: 0-3

Avg. NET win: 137
Avg. NET loss: 47

BPI: 34
NET: 41
Sagarin: 30
KPI: 48
SOR: 27
KenPom: 42
Avg.: 37.0

Prognosis: The next two are Quad 3s, then the Tar Heels get Duke. They’re safe for now.

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Miami

Record: 20-8 (12-5 ACC)
SOS/OOC: 75/127

Quad 1: 4-2
Quad 2: 5-3
Quad 3: 7-3
Quad 4: 4-0

Road: 8-2
Neutral: 2-2

Avg. NET win: 135
Avg. NET loss: 74

BPI: 59
NET: 61
Sagarin: 70
KPI: 35
SOR: 34
KenPom: 62
Avg.: 53.5

Prognosis: Chance to move up a seed line with a Quad 2 game with Virginia Tech on Saturday.

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Wake Forest

Record: 21-8 (11-7 ACC)
SOS/OOC: 88/334

Quad 1: 1-4
Quad 2: 4-4
Quad 3: 8-0
Quad 4: 9-0

Road: 5-5
Neutral: 2-1

Avg. NET win: 168
Avg. NET loss: 58

BPI: 38
NET: 42
Sagarin: 47
KPI: 53
SOR: 31
KenPom: 36
Avg.: 41.2

Prognosis: I moved them down from the second Should Be In spot to the fifth (and final). The next two are Quad 3 home games. Any slips, and they’re on the other side of the line.

 

Work to Do

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Virginia

Record: 17-11 (11-7 ACC)
SOS/OOC: 54/135

Quad 1: 3-6
Quad 2: 4-1
Quad 3: 4-4
Quad 4: 6-0

Road: 5-6
Neutral: 2-0

Avg. NET win: 155
Avg. NET loss: 73

BPI: 59
NET: 80
Sagarin: 57
KPI: 65
SOR: 62
KenPom: 74
Avg: 66.2

Prognosis: Need to win out in the regular season, then at least one, maybe two, in Brooklyn.

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Virginia Tech

Record: 17-11 (9-8 ACC)
SOS/OOC: 82/130

Quad 1: 0-5
Quad 2: 4-4
Quad 3: 7-2
Quad 4: 6-0

Road: 6-5
Neutral: 1-2

Avg. NET win: 173
Avg. NET loss: 62

BPI: 22
NET: 40
Sagarin: 33
KPI: 86
SOR: 71
KenPom: 33
Avg.: 47.5

Prognosis: The computers love the Hokies, but no Quad 1 wins, though there is a chance coming up next, at Miami on Saturday.

Story by Chris Graham