A solid lead for Obama, or a nailbiter?

Analysis by Chris Graham
freepress2@ntelos.net

OK, so which one is it?

On the one hand, we’re being told by Rasmussen that Obama’s lead has narrowed from six points a few days ago to either two points when including leaners or one point when looking just at direct preferences stated by registered voters in its daily tracking poll.

On the other, Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Obama opening up a six-point lead, doubling the lead in Gallup that he had yesterday.

Er … so, like, what gives?

Keep in mind that the poll numbers are not as inconsistent as they might seem when you consider the margins of error for both.

That 43-42 lead among voters (without leaners included) in the Rasmussen poll is in a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. Theoretically, then, the Rasmussen numbers could have Obama up five points, or McCain up three points.

The 48-42 margin for Obama in the Gallup poll, meanwhile, is also a plus or minus two-percentage point deal. So Obama could be up 46-44, or 50-40, on the two extremes.

Reading the two sets of data at once, I think we could get the idea that the race is holding steady in the range of a two- to four-point lead for Obama.

But it is interesting to note how numbers can vary in this way.

Books from AFP

2018-19 UVA Basketball Preview: Just $1.99 on Amazon!

UVA Basketball finished the 2017-18 season ranked at the top of the national polls. Augusta Free Press editor Chris Graham offers his insight and analysis on the 2018-19 'Hoos, breaking down the roster, the legacy of coach Tony Bennett, and how the loss to UMBC could fuel a run through March Madness next spring.

The Worst Wrestling Pay-Per-View Ever: Just $3.49 on Amazon!

Chris Graham offers a glimpse behind the curtain of the pro wrestling business in his new book, The Worst Wrestling Pay-Per-View Ever, the inside story of the 2011 Night of Legends, a live pay-per-view event featuring stars including WWE Hall of Famers Kevin Nash, "Hacksaw" Jim Duggan and The Rock 'n Roll Express that was met with almost universally negative reviews.

Mad About U: History of University Hall available on Amazon for just $5.99!

Mad About U: Four Decades of at University Hall is a comprehensive book covering the players, coaches and memories of University Hall at the University of Virginia. Join us as we look back at the memories from more than 40 years in U Hall.


News From Around the Web


Shop Google



Comment